I have worked as an Election Inspector in several recent elections. I am considering skipping this year because of COVID–19, but I want to encourage those of you with younger family members to have them sign up. This year voting will be over multiple days at consolidated Voting Centers, so the process will be different. Personal Protective Equipment will be supplied.

1. We flew past $20,000! Our new goal is $25,000. Thanks to all and keep sending the links to friends.
2. We have free Black Lives Matter signs. Just send us an email if you want one.
3. Our letter-writers have now prepared 680 letters. Email me if you want letters printed or want to learn how to print your own or if you need addresses for postcards.
4. Quick Andy update: Trump folds on Arizona, Gross pulls even in Alaska (in one poll) and Alan Cohn reported that they have a very active Get-Out-The Vote campaign. Finally: The postmaster’s address will change after January–probably will be behind bars!

Crystal Ball issued changed House ratings today, and they had good news and bad news. It’s all against a background that the Democrats as a whole are in excellent shape, with no real likelihood of losing the House.

Changes in the Dem direction included Alaska-AL (Alyse Galvin) to Lean R, Ammar Campa-Najjar, in CA-50 against Issa from Safe to Likely R, likewise Brynne Kennedy against Tom McClintock in CA-04, and also Safe to Likely R in NC-11. That’s where Col. (ret.) Moe Davis is running for an open bright-red seat against Madison Cawthorn, the callow and not-too-bright youth who spoke at the Trump National Convention.

Just as interesting were shifts in the bad direction. These include CA-25, the seat where R Mike Garcia won the special election after Katie Hill’s creep husband forced her to resign with revenge porn. November is a rematch of March with Christy Smith. Crystal Ball now lists this as Lean R. Another candidate who was asking me for money told me that it is an open secret Smith is running her second weak campaign this year. FL-26, where Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is almost the only threatened D incumbent, was downgraded to Toss-Up. (Crystal Ball has big upset 2018 winners TJ Cox CA-21, Joe Cunningham SC-01, and Kendra Horn OK-05 all Lean D.) It isn’t money for either Smith or Mucarsel-Powell. I wish I knew what it is. This will be an interesting test of Rachel Bitecofer’s theory that the hatred of Trump in these districts will overcome the mediocrity of the candidate. She has CA-25 as Likely D, and FL-26 as Solid D.

We are a bit slow posting these since yesterday was Andy’s birthday. Here goes

1. The bulk of the meeting was devoted to Andy’s analysis of the keys races for a minimum Biden win. The maps and the analysis is posted below so everyone can scroll down to review all the info. Bottom line: we are focusing on the electoral college and what Biden needs to win– this means North Carolina (we added a House race to our two down-ballot races), Florida (we added House race FL 15), Arizona ( we are already supporting Evans there) and Nebraska (Nebraska?! Yes–one electoral college vote is within reach, so we added Eastman there). To add these we dropped T.J. Cox (we’ve done lots for him) and Rita Hart from Iowa (everyone is free to send support directly to her).
2. Bill gave a great overview of our North Carolina races (he since posted several links which can be found below). Phone banks and postcards available for all.
3. Judy updated us on the VITAL VINNIE race. Support links posted below.
4. I went over some action items to support these four states. Lots of good Florida letters available with Vote Forward (votefwd.org). Unlike, postcards, these letters (and voters) are tracked so we get info back from each one. Anyone who wants to level up to new actions, please send me an email and I’ll get you a buddy or set you up with letters, etc. We have postcards on our porch. And our stamp hint is: try the Orinda postoffice!
5. Nice to see Babette again and congrats on the huge stack of postcards she and Bruce are sending off for Reclaim Our Vote (Bruce has info on this group if anyone want it).
6. Finally, Andy and I will match new donations on our website up to $10,000 so send around the link and have your friends donate.

MONDAY, Labor Day, Sept. 7, at 3:00 PM Pacific Time

Help Dan O’Neil flip Michigan House District 104 from red to BLUE. Dan will be joined by Matt Barry, one of the geniuses at Fieldwork Brewing Company. We’ll deliver a “flight pack” of four 16 oz cans; Matt will explain why something this amazingly good is still somehow technically just beer; Dan will consider moving to Berkeley. (Donation $50) RSVP

SUNDAY, Sept. 13, at 3:30 PM Pacific Time

Help Kimberly Hardy and Virginia Cox-Daugherty flip the North Carolina House. We’ll bring the Chocolate – all you have to do is taste it as chocolate luminaries Alice Medrich and Nancy Nadel explain how chocolate is good for you, the environment, developing economies, and democracy. If the Republicans win they will take away your Chocolate – and God only knows what they’ll do to those puppies. (Donation $55) RSVP

Also – EBAA Home Stretch All Members Meeting 9/3: Get the latest information on our two month push to help the Blue Wave crest on Nov. 3 Get Zoom Link

At stake in NC, the election includes races for Governor (currently Roy Cooper, Democrat running for re-election…Republican contender is Dan Forest), Senator (currently Thom Tillis, Republican running for re-election…Democratic contender is Cal Cunningham)

Shows map of NC House Districts https://flipnc.org/most-competitive-nc-house-districts-2020

Map of Congressional Districts in NC https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Carolina%27s_congressional_districts

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/north-carolina-political-geography/

North Carolina is also a swing state, even though it has a fairly consistent Republican lean. North Carolina’s white college-educated population share isn’t that much smaller than Virginia’s, but it has a larger share of white voters who don’t have a four-year degree. Additionally, North Carolina’s white voters are somewhat more Republican-leaning, and the state tends to be more rural than Virginia. (from 538 polls). https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/swing-states-2020-election/ Here is an article about the dramatic shift in NC to Red once GOP took control of the legislature.
https://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-north-carolina-southern-progressivism.html A look at what happened in 2010-12 when the GOP won a veto proof majority in the legislature and the governorship.

Current EBAA supported candidates are

Dr. Kimberly Hardy NC HD-43, https://www.kimberlyhardyfornc.com/, this is a hold, but the formerly reliable Democratic seat is going to be a challenge to hold after the redistricting. Up ballot this race impacts the race for Congressional District 8 where Pat Timmons-Goodson https://www.timmonsgoodsonforcongress.com/, and Congressional District 9 (currently GOP, Cynthia Wallace is the Dem. candidate, Dan McReady was the Dem. candidate in a special election to fill this seat when Meadows left to join the White House staff, so we do not have high hopes for a flip there) as well as statewide races for Governor and US Senator.

Dr. Virginia Cox-Daugherty, NC HD-12, https://virginiacoxdaugherty.com/, this is a heavy lift flip, D -7. It has been a low turnout area much like CA-21 with TJ Cox. If the campaign can generate a strong vote turnout will have major impact on the statewide races for Democrats as well as Congressional District 3 https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/NC/3, and could conceivably flip this back to Democratic control…undermined by gerrymandering and mentioned in the film Slay the Dragon (worth watching if you have not seen it, you can rent it on Amazon for a buck).

One voter registration group that is native to North Carolina is YouCanVote, https://www.youcanvote.org. They register and educate voters and have an excellent track record in that those who they register vote in higher numbers than the general population of registered voters.

Reminder: Link for today = Join Zoom Meeting

I am going to suggest some changes to our fundraising targets based on the maps below, which show plausible minimal combinations of states to win the Electoral College. The first map shows that if we retake Michigan and Pennsylvania but drop Minnesota (thought to be the Clinton state most likely to flip), we win with Arizona and Nebraska CD-02 (remember that Nebraska and Maine split electoral votes by House district).

In the second map, we win Florida. We don’t have to win any other hotly contested state, unless you count Pennsylvania.

In the third map, we win North Carolina but not Florida. (I don’t think this is particularly likely.) The table underneath shows what we need to add on. Arizona appears in three of the combinations, and NE-02 in one. I’ll discuss the implications below the maps.

States
FL	286
OH	275
GA	273
MI	273
AZ+MN	278
AZ+WI	278
MN+WI	277
AZ+ME-02+NE-02	270

I think at this point we can drop TJ Cox. He is keeping pace with David Valadao on fundraising and the weaknesses of his campaign are unlikely to be fixed with cash. I also suggest dropping Rita Hart (for whom we have collected several thousand dollars) because Iowa is a bonus on these maps, not a key state.

The only competitive House race in Arizona is Hiral Tiperneni in AZ-06, which is rated Tossup/Lean R. She has far outraised the scandal-plagued incumbent Schweikert. She has $1.2M cash on hand and he has $0.2M and his fundraising seems to have slowed now that he has to do it legally. She needs Democratic voters, not money.

However, we do have Coral Evans running for the Arizona House, so we are already making a contribution.

For North Carolina, we should add Patricia Timmons-Goodson in NC-08 (lean R). Besides helping with money, we need Tar Heels to vote Blue up and down the ballot—we have two state legislators on the list and I believe the districts overlap with NC-08. Timmons-Goodson has not done well with fundraising. Cash on hand $0.6M, incumbent has $1.8M.

In Florida, there are not that many contested races, of which the most important is Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL-26), an endangered D incumbent. The seat is rated Lean D, and she has much more money than her opponent. I suggest instead we try Alan Cohn in FL-15 (Lean R). The Republican incumbent had some legal trouble and was defeated in an expensive primary, while Cohn also had a tough primary. For money, both of them are basically starting from zero (a little over $100K each). Cohn has called me a few times, and I can ask whether he has a Get Out the Vote plan to get his and Biden’s supporters to the polls, or at least to the mailbox. He lost a race for this seat in 2014, so it isn’t his first rodeo.

And finally, NE-02. Last cycle the DCCC was so miffed that their preferred candidate lost to Bernie supporter Kara Eastman in the primary they didn’t go hard on the seat. She lost by less than 4 anyway. This time the DCCC came to new wisdom, didn’t take sides for the more moderate candidates in the primary, and after she won the primary again put her on the Red to Blue List (ratings are Tossup/Lean R). She also has a J Street endorsement. This district includes Omaha suburbs, just the sort of demographic to sour on Trump. Given that even one electoral vote can matter (see above), I think we should add her, too.

Thanks to everyone who zoomed into The Meet & Greet for Board of Supes Dist 1 candidate Vinnie Bacon last night. Even bigger thanks to everyone who donated and or is willing to volunteer to phonebank or perhaps text for him. As I said last night, in addition to my personal donation, I will add an extra $10 for each $100 that my invitees donate by 5:30pm today, Sun, 8/30. Here are the links for donating and volunteering:

The recording of last night’s zoom meeting can be found at the link below with the password as shown. 
https://zoom.us/rec/share/2u5QFLHqsWlJQ6vN4UPBdqwDTor6X6a81ClNrPcOzUrVSNHQ-QnpPfAJFv9ckcVi Passcode: 2D5At..S 
The link to contribute and have it go towards your total is here: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/aug29wellstone
And of course, volunteers can sign up here: https://bacon4supervisor.com/volunteer/

Agenda includes Andy’s report on what not to fear, Bill’s update on North Carolina candidates and Naomi’s report on how we are doing with our goals and some highlights from Judy and Bruce.

Check out how well our fund-raising is going!! We are nearing our goals so send the link around to your friends to take us over the top.

1. Link for meeting Sunday August 30, 4:30-5:30

Join Zoom Meeting
Meeting ID: 895 188 2414
Passcode: 945908

2. I have extra Black Lives Matter signs. Email me and I’ll put one for you on the porch.

3. Don’t forget our gathering for Vinnie Bacon Saturday August 29th 6:00 pm

Kuppa, MI-41, Saturdays
11:00-1:00 https://actionnetwork.org/events/ebaa-phonebank-for-padma-kuppa-in-mi-41-with-aaron-8292020

O’Neil, MI-104, Saturdays
11:00-1:00 https://actionnetwork.org/events/ebaa-phonebank-for-dan-oneil-with-sam-8292020

Hardy, NC-43, Saturdays
11:00-1:00 https://actionnetwork.org/events/ebaa-phonebanking-for-north-carolina-82920/

Pulver, MI-39, Sundays
1:00-3:00 https://actionnetwork.org/events/ebaa-virtual-phonebank-michigan-sundays-with-scott-miller-82320/
11:00-1:00 https://actionnetwork.org/events/ebaa-phonebank-for-julia-pulver-in-mi-39-with-max-8232020

Evans, AZ-6, Wednesdays
4:00-7:00 https://actionnetwork.org/events/winning-wednesdays-ebaa-phonebanking-texting-and-postcarding-via-zoom-on-82620

Cox-Daughery, NC, Thursdays
2:00-4:00 https://actionnetwork.org/events/ebaa-phonebank-for-north-carolina-8272020