1. We raced by $25,000 and will probably cross $30,000 today! Keep sending our link to friends–everyone is in the mood to donate.
2. Ann O. had lots of good suggestions for new phrases for Vote Forward letters. Highlight the election date and if you want more suggestions for phrases, email me.
3. Andy added a race to our list based on his updated analysis. We now have a link for Greenfield in the Iowa senate race. Some new interesting house race info–he’ll send out some info today or tomorrow.
4. I have lots of “buddy” offers so if you want to turn your new anger into a new form of action, feel free to email me. Scroll down to previous posts for lots of good links to actions.
5. Thanks to the many of you who are picking up postcards and letters from my porch (nearing 1,000 letters today). The TJ Cox campaign sent a lovely thank you for all the postcards. That race is neck-and-neck so every postcard is important.
6. Finally, a FUN EVENT for vote forward tomorrow late afternoon with

 Lin-Manuel Miranda from Hamilton

When: The kickoff event is on Monday (9/21) at 7:30 pm ET/4:30 pm PT
RSVP using this link: https://www.mobilize.us/votefwd/event/319667/?utm_source=lmm-referral

1. The website workelections.com is one-stop shopping for those who want to work on election day (or days in some states).
2. Another good link to send to friends who want to help protect the election: Protecttheresults.com.
3. Finally, some phone bank opportunities with Bill:

New or abiding aversion to phone banking? Get over it! (Seriously, we need callers.)
Thursday, September 24, 7-8PM phone bank training for newbies. RSVP.Wednesday, October 7, 7-8PM phone bank training for newbies. RSVP.Ready to call? Support Dr. Kimberly Hardy on Saturdays. RSVP.North Carolina Flip Dr. Virginia Cox-Daugherty on Thursdays. RSVPSunday, September 20, 3-5PM for North Carolina. RSVPThursday, October 8, 3-5PM for North Carolina. RSVP

Another change:

Wed Sep 16	04:00 PM	Evans|French	Arizona			RSVP

— 

Every day that goes by is one more that Trump has been unable to change the election direction: Biden is ahead in polls, in swing state polls, and the Democrats are expanding the Congressional map. We have learned more details about Trump’s plans for martial law and combatting the “insurrection” that would follow an unjustified declaration of victory. My presentation is uploaded here.

We had a good poll (I admit, I am a little skeptical) for Joyce Elliott in Arkansas–02. Her web site. This isn’t a race with up-and-down-the-ballot potential, though.

All types of action items from Indivisible.

Indivisible’s texting schedule (from Judy).

If you want to join in on a letter-writing party Saturday, get in touch with Sally.

Help with texting? Karen volunteers to help, or Judy.

Bill promises some links to phone banks in a separate post.

Keep your spirits up. The thermometer is at almost $25,000.

Topic: Indivisible Elmwood

Agenda: We will talk about various ways to protect voting as well as update about action items.

Time: Sep 13, 2020 04:30 PM Pacific Time (US and Canada)

Join Zoom Meeting

Meeting ID: 839 6170 3760

Passcode: 398137

One tap mobile

+16699006833,,83961703760#,,,,,,0#,,398137# US (San Jose)

+19292056099,,83961703760#,,,,,,0#,,398137# US (New York)

I have worked as an Election Inspector in several recent elections. I am considering skipping this year because of COVID–19, but I want to encourage those of you with younger family members to have them sign up. This year voting will be over multiple days at consolidated Voting Centers, so the process will be different. Personal Protective Equipment will be supplied.

1. We flew past $20,000! Our new goal is $25,000. Thanks to all and keep sending the links to friends.
2. We have free Black Lives Matter signs. Just send us an email if you want one.
3. Our letter-writers have now prepared 680 letters. Email me if you want letters printed or want to learn how to print your own or if you need addresses for postcards.
4. Quick Andy update: Trump folds on Arizona, Gross pulls even in Alaska (in one poll) and Alan Cohn reported that they have a very active Get-Out-The Vote campaign. Finally: The postmaster’s address will change after January–probably will be behind bars!

Crystal Ball issued changed House ratings today, and they had good news and bad news. It’s all against a background that the Democrats as a whole are in excellent shape, with no real likelihood of losing the House.

Changes in the Dem direction included Alaska-AL (Alyse Galvin) to Lean R, Ammar Campa-Najjar, in CA-50 against Issa from Safe to Likely R, likewise Brynne Kennedy against Tom McClintock in CA-04, and also Safe to Likely R in NC-11. That’s where Col. (ret.) Moe Davis is running for an open bright-red seat against Madison Cawthorn, the callow and not-too-bright youth who spoke at the Trump National Convention.

Just as interesting were shifts in the bad direction. These include CA-25, the seat where R Mike Garcia won the special election after Katie Hill’s creep husband forced her to resign with revenge porn. November is a rematch of March with Christy Smith. Crystal Ball now lists this as Lean R. Another candidate who was asking me for money told me that it is an open secret Smith is running her second weak campaign this year. FL-26, where Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is almost the only threatened D incumbent, was downgraded to Toss-Up. (Crystal Ball has big upset 2018 winners TJ Cox CA-21, Joe Cunningham SC-01, and Kendra Horn OK-05 all Lean D.) It isn’t money for either Smith or Mucarsel-Powell. I wish I knew what it is. This will be an interesting test of Rachel Bitecofer’s theory that the hatred of Trump in these districts will overcome the mediocrity of the candidate. She has CA-25 as Likely D, and FL-26 as Solid D.

We are a bit slow posting these since yesterday was Andy’s birthday. Here goes

1. The bulk of the meeting was devoted to Andy’s analysis of the keys races for a minimum Biden win. The maps and the analysis is posted below so everyone can scroll down to review all the info. Bottom line: we are focusing on the electoral college and what Biden needs to win– this means North Carolina (we added a House race to our two down-ballot races), Florida (we added House race FL 15), Arizona ( we are already supporting Evans there) and Nebraska (Nebraska?! Yes–one electoral college vote is within reach, so we added Eastman there). To add these we dropped T.J. Cox (we’ve done lots for him) and Rita Hart from Iowa (everyone is free to send support directly to her).
2. Bill gave a great overview of our North Carolina races (he since posted several links which can be found below). Phone banks and postcards available for all.
3. Judy updated us on the VITAL VINNIE race. Support links posted below.
4. I went over some action items to support these four states. Lots of good Florida letters available with Vote Forward (votefwd.org). Unlike, postcards, these letters (and voters) are tracked so we get info back from each one. Anyone who wants to level up to new actions, please send me an email and I’ll get you a buddy or set you up with letters, etc. We have postcards on our porch. And our stamp hint is: try the Orinda postoffice!
5. Nice to see Babette again and congrats on the huge stack of postcards she and Bruce are sending off for Reclaim Our Vote (Bruce has info on this group if anyone want it).
6. Finally, Andy and I will match new donations on our website up to $10,000 so send around the link and have your friends donate.

MONDAY, Labor Day, Sept. 7, at 3:00 PM Pacific Time

Help Dan O’Neil flip Michigan House District 104 from red to BLUE. Dan will be joined by Matt Barry, one of the geniuses at Fieldwork Brewing Company. We’ll deliver a “flight pack” of four 16 oz cans; Matt will explain why something this amazingly good is still somehow technically just beer; Dan will consider moving to Berkeley. (Donation $50) RSVP

SUNDAY, Sept. 13, at 3:30 PM Pacific Time

Help Kimberly Hardy and Virginia Cox-Daugherty flip the North Carolina House. We’ll bring the Chocolate – all you have to do is taste it as chocolate luminaries Alice Medrich and Nancy Nadel explain how chocolate is good for you, the environment, developing economies, and democracy. If the Republicans win they will take away your Chocolate – and God only knows what they’ll do to those puppies. (Donation $55) RSVP

Also – EBAA Home Stretch All Members Meeting 9/3: Get the latest information on our two month push to help the Blue Wave crest on Nov. 3 Get Zoom Link

At stake in NC, the election includes races for Governor (currently Roy Cooper, Democrat running for re-election…Republican contender is Dan Forest), Senator (currently Thom Tillis, Republican running for re-election…Democratic contender is Cal Cunningham)

Shows map of NC House Districts https://flipnc.org/most-competitive-nc-house-districts-2020

Map of Congressional Districts in NC https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Carolina%27s_congressional_districts

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/north-carolina-political-geography/

North Carolina is also a swing state, even though it has a fairly consistent Republican lean. North Carolina’s white college-educated population share isn’t that much smaller than Virginia’s, but it has a larger share of white voters who don’t have a four-year degree. Additionally, North Carolina’s white voters are somewhat more Republican-leaning, and the state tends to be more rural than Virginia. (from 538 polls). https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/swing-states-2020-election/ Here is an article about the dramatic shift in NC to Red once GOP took control of the legislature.
https://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-north-carolina-southern-progressivism.html A look at what happened in 2010-12 when the GOP won a veto proof majority in the legislature and the governorship.

Current EBAA supported candidates are

Dr. Kimberly Hardy NC HD-43, https://www.kimberlyhardyfornc.com/, this is a hold, but the formerly reliable Democratic seat is going to be a challenge to hold after the redistricting. Up ballot this race impacts the race for Congressional District 8 where Pat Timmons-Goodson https://www.timmonsgoodsonforcongress.com/, and Congressional District 9 (currently GOP, Cynthia Wallace is the Dem. candidate, Dan McReady was the Dem. candidate in a special election to fill this seat when Meadows left to join the White House staff, so we do not have high hopes for a flip there) as well as statewide races for Governor and US Senator.

Dr. Virginia Cox-Daugherty, NC HD-12, https://virginiacoxdaugherty.com/, this is a heavy lift flip, D -7. It has been a low turnout area much like CA-21 with TJ Cox. If the campaign can generate a strong vote turnout will have major impact on the statewide races for Democrats as well as Congressional District 3 https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/NC/3, and could conceivably flip this back to Democratic control…undermined by gerrymandering and mentioned in the film Slay the Dragon (worth watching if you have not seen it, you can rent it on Amazon for a buck).

One voter registration group that is native to North Carolina is YouCanVote, https://www.youcanvote.org. They register and educate voters and have an excellent track record in that those who they register vote in higher numbers than the general population of registered voters.