Crystal Ball issued changed House ratings today, and they had good news and bad news. It’s all against a background that the Democrats as a whole are in excellent shape, with no real likelihood of losing the House.
Changes in the Dem direction included Alaska-AL (Alyse Galvin) to Lean R, Ammar Campa-Najjar, in CA-50 against Issa from Safe to Likely R, likewise Brynne Kennedy against Tom McClintock in CA-04, and also Safe to Likely R in NC-11. That’s where Col. (ret.) Moe Davis is running for an open bright-red seat against Madison Cawthorn, the callow and not-too-bright youth who spoke at the Trump National Convention.
Just as interesting were shifts in the bad direction. These include CA-25, the seat where R Mike Garcia won the special election after Katie Hill’s creep husband forced her to resign with revenge porn. November is a rematch of March with Christy Smith. Crystal Ball now lists this as Lean R. Another candidate who was asking me for money told me that it is an open secret Smith is running her second weak campaign this year. FL-26, where Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is almost the only threatened D incumbent, was downgraded to Toss-Up. (Crystal Ball has big upset 2018 winners TJ Cox CA-21, Joe Cunningham SC-01, and Kendra Horn OK-05 all Lean D.) It isn’t money for either Smith or Mucarsel-Powell. I wish I knew what it is. This will be an interesting test of Rachel Bitecofer’s theory that the hatred of Trump in these districts will overcome the mediocrity of the candidate. She has CA-25 as Likely D, and FL-26 as Solid D.