Jeff Carlock of EBAA has done his own calculation of bang for buck in the Senate races, which he has turned into the nifty graph below [filed under: Why didn’t I think of that!]

There’s one important variable that is missing, and not entirely easy to calculate, which is the candidates’ cash on hand, especially after the donation binge that followed RBG’s death.

Today’s NY Times article features Al Gross (AK), as having raised $3MM, doubling his cash on hand, and bringing him over the $8MM he told supporters was all he needed—with six weeks to go. Amy McGrath (who you can see in the chart is the least desirable competitive race for a donation) raked in many more millions out of spite.^{[footnote 1]} You also can’t tell from the chart that Bollier (KS) is far ahead of Marshall in cash, while Greenfield (IA) is not ahead of Ernst in cash, albeit she is in the polls.

I remain skeptical of Jaime Harrison’s chances or value as a contribution, fun as it is to watch Lindsey Graham squirm. In the latest 45-all polling, Harrison is already pulling 95% of Democrats while Lindsey has only 80-some of Republicans. Harrison needs them to skip the Senate race or vote third-party, and Graham will be abasing himself to the max in the confirmation hearings to avoid that. I wonder if it will be his opening or closing statement where he announces that Trump’s farts do, indeed, smell like roses. Harrison raised oodles this week, and more will accrue once the hearings are on TV.

Mike Espy in Mississippi is a better play than Harrison. He is running (again) against Cindy Hyde-Smith. She defeated him in the special election required when Thad Cochrane retired early for health reasons. Espy is now only 5 down in the polls, and should have been put on this chart, but he has a similar issue to Harrison’s: he is maxed out with the state’s large African American population and needs extraordinary good fortune with its whites. Espy’s haul this weekend was a record for him, but was still less than $1MM. I am sure he can use cash better than Harrison, who is reaching saturation.

You can see from the graph that Jon Ossoff (GA) remains an important recipient. The special election in Georgia is rounding into view: The Rev. Raphael Warnock is now ahead of Matt Lieberman in the polls, behind Republican Doug Collins, and close to appointed incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler. Remember, this is a jungle primary. There is zero chance that either Republican will get 50%, so the point is for Warnock to finish in second place and be ready for the runoff. I don’t know if more money is what Warnock needs to get Matt Lieberman (and two other minor Democrats in single digits) out of the race, or whether some other form of persuasion is necessary. Lieberman was ahead of Warnock early in the race, but his fundraising is weak and almost all Democratic leaders have endorsed Warnock. Maybe this isn’t the year for the Dems to run two white liberal Jews in Georgia?

Incidentally, the other BIPoC Democratic Senate candidates are Adrian Perkins (LA), Marquita Bradshaw (TN), and Nez Perce tribal citizen Paulette Jordan (ID), all of whom will lose big, but who would certainly appreciate a token contribution. (I suppose I should also include Ben Ray Luján of New Mexico, but he is an overwhelming favorite.)

I am replacing Gross with Steve Bullock (MT) on our ActBlue page later tonight, not because I am giving up on Gross (I think he is closer to winning than the graph suggests), but because I will take him at his word that he can’t spend more than $8MM, which he has now raised.

^{[note 1]} This left-wing site suggests that McGrath isn’t even a very good candidate, although I doubt anyone could beat McConnell, and has been offered up by the Democratic Establishment because she would have no trouble raising money from out-of-state supporters. (I am not quite sure what the DSCC’s motive would be here: whether to force Mitch to spend in his own backyard so that he can’t redistribute his own funds, or to hope that McGrath would have so much money she could funnel some to the DSCC, or both.)

One reason to feel good about the Presidential race is that House polls show the Democrats in a slightly better position than Biden, who, of course, is still ahead. According to Nate Silver of 538, this is the opposite of 2016, where House races were relatively weak for Democrats. The Democrats’ pickup of six House seats was not impressive. To quantify this, in 2016, Republican House candidates actually received more votes than Democrats. In 2018, that swung nine percentage points to the Blue.

Nathan Gonzales of Inside Elections and Cook Political Report have made some recent prediction changes, most, but not all, in the Democrats’ direction. (Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball is due for update.)

Of Gonzales’ ten Tossups, 7 are Republican-held. The other three are Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL-26), Kendra Horn (the big upset winner of OK-5 last cycle), and Max Rose (NY-11: Staten Island and part of Brooklyn). He has no current D seat worse than Tossup.

This actually makes Gonzales more optimistic than I am about TJ Cox (lean D) and Christy Smith (Tossup to defeat Mike Garcia this time). An early September poll had Cox 11 behind, and the bad news is that Valadao had about his same percentage as 2018. Cox has bled support. He needs enormous Biden turnout with no ticket splitting. Smith is also behind in polling. Neither candidate is particularly hurting for money; they just don’t seem to be connecting with voters.

Polling in Iowa is looking good for all three seats we are defending (Finkenauer, Axne, and Hart to replace Loebsack, in descending order of lead). Unfortunately, JD Scholten’s only chance was Republican renomination of bigot Steve King, and the Iowa Republicans retired him in the primary. Scholten is double-digits behind, which is also why Biden is less than 50-50 to take the state. I have no idea if he is related to Hilary Scholten, who is our relatively long-shot (but closer then JD) candidate to replace Republican-turned-Libertarian Justin Amash in MI-03.

The flip side is that both pundits and polls are now giving us real chances in VA-05 (Cameron Webb) and CO-03 (Diane Mitsch Bush), which became competitive only because Republicans nominated extremist nuts. I found no polls of NC-11 in the last month, where callow Republican youth Madison Cawthorn was caught lying about his education, and even whether his ex-girlfriend dumped him before or after he was paralyzed in an automobile accident. (Before.) He was about 5 ahead when these revelations hit.

Darrel Issa is only barely ahead of Ammar Campa-Najjar in CA-50, too.

Bottom line here is: we are probably losing one or two seats, and winning as many as twelve. We start with two locks in NC from redistricting, four in play in Texas (TX-23 with Gina Ortiz Jones is at least Lean D; three tossup seats with D momentum; two more at the edges of possibility), and have more than one viable candidate in PA, OH, and NY. Then there’s a smattering: the only seat in AK, the only one in MT (surprisingly strong poll this week; Republican is a recent arrival to the state), Schupp even in MO-02, etc. We are playing offense all over the map.

1. We raced by $25,000 and will probably cross $30,000 today! Keep sending our link to friends–everyone is in the mood to donate.
2. Ann O. had lots of good suggestions for new phrases for Vote Forward letters. Highlight the election date and if you want more suggestions for phrases, email me.
3. Andy added a race to our list based on his updated analysis. We now have a link for Greenfield in the Iowa senate race. Some new interesting house race info–he’ll send out some info today or tomorrow.
4. I have lots of “buddy” offers so if you want to turn your new anger into a new form of action, feel free to email me. Scroll down to previous posts for lots of good links to actions.
5. Thanks to the many of you who are picking up postcards and letters from my porch (nearing 1,000 letters today). The TJ Cox campaign sent a lovely thank you for all the postcards. That race is neck-and-neck so every postcard is important.
6. Finally, a FUN EVENT for vote forward tomorrow late afternoon with

 Lin-Manuel Miranda from Hamilton

When: The kickoff event is on Monday (9/21) at 7:30 pm ET/4:30 pm PT
RSVP using this link: https://www.mobilize.us/votefwd/event/319667/?utm_source=lmm-referral

1. The website workelections.com is one-stop shopping for those who want to work on election day (or days in some states).
2. Another good link to send to friends who want to help protect the election: Protecttheresults.com.
3. Finally, some phone bank opportunities with Bill:

New or abiding aversion to phone banking? Get over it! (Seriously, we need callers.)
Thursday, September 24, 7-8PM phone bank training for newbies. RSVP.Wednesday, October 7, 7-8PM phone bank training for newbies. RSVP.Ready to call? Support Dr. Kimberly Hardy on Saturdays. RSVP.North Carolina Flip Dr. Virginia Cox-Daugherty on Thursdays. RSVPSunday, September 20, 3-5PM for North Carolina. RSVPThursday, October 8, 3-5PM for North Carolina. RSVP

Another change:

Wed Sep 16	04:00 PM	Evans|French	Arizona			RSVP

— 

Every day that goes by is one more that Trump has been unable to change the election direction: Biden is ahead in polls, in swing state polls, and the Democrats are expanding the Congressional map. We have learned more details about Trump’s plans for martial law and combatting the “insurrection” that would follow an unjustified declaration of victory. My presentation is uploaded here.

We had a good poll (I admit, I am a little skeptical) for Joyce Elliott in Arkansas–02. Her web site. This isn’t a race with up-and-down-the-ballot potential, though.

All types of action items from Indivisible.

Indivisible’s texting schedule (from Judy).

If you want to join in on a letter-writing party Saturday, get in touch with Sally.

Help with texting? Karen volunteers to help, or Judy.

Bill promises some links to phone banks in a separate post.

Keep your spirits up. The thermometer is at almost $25,000.

Topic: Indivisible Elmwood

Agenda: We will talk about various ways to protect voting as well as update about action items.

Time: Sep 13, 2020 04:30 PM Pacific Time (US and Canada)

Join Zoom Meeting

Meeting ID: 839 6170 3760

Passcode: 398137

One tap mobile

+16699006833,,83961703760#,,,,,,0#,,398137# US (San Jose)

+19292056099,,83961703760#,,,,,,0#,,398137# US (New York)

I have worked as an Election Inspector in several recent elections. I am considering skipping this year because of COVID–19, but I want to encourage those of you with younger family members to have them sign up. This year voting will be over multiple days at consolidated Voting Centers, so the process will be different. Personal Protective Equipment will be supplied.

1. We flew past $20,000! Our new goal is $25,000. Thanks to all and keep sending the links to friends.
2. We have free Black Lives Matter signs. Just send us an email if you want one.
3. Our letter-writers have now prepared 680 letters. Email me if you want letters printed or want to learn how to print your own or if you need addresses for postcards.
4. Quick Andy update: Trump folds on Arizona, Gross pulls even in Alaska (in one poll) and Alan Cohn reported that they have a very active Get-Out-The Vote campaign. Finally: The postmaster’s address will change after January–probably will be behind bars!

Crystal Ball issued changed House ratings today, and they had good news and bad news. It’s all against a background that the Democrats as a whole are in excellent shape, with no real likelihood of losing the House.

Changes in the Dem direction included Alaska-AL (Alyse Galvin) to Lean R, Ammar Campa-Najjar, in CA-50 against Issa from Safe to Likely R, likewise Brynne Kennedy against Tom McClintock in CA-04, and also Safe to Likely R in NC-11. That’s where Col. (ret.) Moe Davis is running for an open bright-red seat against Madison Cawthorn, the callow and not-too-bright youth who spoke at the Trump National Convention.

Just as interesting were shifts in the bad direction. These include CA-25, the seat where R Mike Garcia won the special election after Katie Hill’s creep husband forced her to resign with revenge porn. November is a rematch of March with Christy Smith. Crystal Ball now lists this as Lean R. Another candidate who was asking me for money told me that it is an open secret Smith is running her second weak campaign this year. FL-26, where Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is almost the only threatened D incumbent, was downgraded to Toss-Up. (Crystal Ball has big upset 2018 winners TJ Cox CA-21, Joe Cunningham SC-01, and Kendra Horn OK-05 all Lean D.) It isn’t money for either Smith or Mucarsel-Powell. I wish I knew what it is. This will be an interesting test of Rachel Bitecofer’s theory that the hatred of Trump in these districts will overcome the mediocrity of the candidate. She has CA-25 as Likely D, and FL-26 as Solid D.

We are a bit slow posting these since yesterday was Andy’s birthday. Here goes

1. The bulk of the meeting was devoted to Andy’s analysis of the keys races for a minimum Biden win. The maps and the analysis is posted below so everyone can scroll down to review all the info. Bottom line: we are focusing on the electoral college and what Biden needs to win– this means North Carolina (we added a House race to our two down-ballot races), Florida (we added House race FL 15), Arizona ( we are already supporting Evans there) and Nebraska (Nebraska?! Yes–one electoral college vote is within reach, so we added Eastman there). To add these we dropped T.J. Cox (we’ve done lots for him) and Rita Hart from Iowa (everyone is free to send support directly to her).
2. Bill gave a great overview of our North Carolina races (he since posted several links which can be found below). Phone banks and postcards available for all.
3. Judy updated us on the VITAL VINNIE race. Support links posted below.
4. I went over some action items to support these four states. Lots of good Florida letters available with Vote Forward (votefwd.org). Unlike, postcards, these letters (and voters) are tracked so we get info back from each one. Anyone who wants to level up to new actions, please send me an email and I’ll get you a buddy or set you up with letters, etc. We have postcards on our porch. And our stamp hint is: try the Orinda postoffice!
5. Nice to see Babette again and congrats on the huge stack of postcards she and Bruce are sending off for Reclaim Our Vote (Bruce has info on this group if anyone want it).
6. Finally, Andy and I will match new donations on our website up to $10,000 so send around the link and have your friends donate.