Just to start off what will probably be a spirited discussion, here’s my take on the propositions.

Let’s start with the State ones, and the subset that are easy.

Prop. 15: partial repeal of Prop. 13. Yes. Opponents say this is just the beginning of chipping away at Prop. 13. Inshallah!

Prop. 16: Affirmative Action. Yes.

Prop. 17: Restore more felon voting rights. Yes.

Prop. 18: 17 year olds allowed to vote in primary if 18 by election. Yes. But please don’t deceive yourself that this is the answer to poor voting rates among youth. I doubt if any race will be decided by these votes in the next century.

Prop. 19: More special privileges under Prop. 13 for existing homeowners. No. Let’s not vote ourselves more gimmicks to keep our own property taxes low. I am also very skeptical of analysis that governments will get more tax money in the long run.

Prop. 20: Re-grow the carceral state. No. Brought to you by the prison guards union.

Prop. 22: Uber and Lyft special pleading. No. I dislike their business model of looking for under-regulated high tech services and exploiting loopholes until lawmakers catch up. I like Berkeley’s proposed surcharge on their rides even more.

Prop. 23: Something about kidneys. No. I didn’t bother to learn about whether dialysis clinics should have physicians, or whatever this is about. Something this detailed has no business being an initiative.

Prop. 25: Cash bail. Yes. Brought to you by the bail bond industry, with the hope you will vote against it from ballot fatigue.

I found these ones more difficult.

Prop. 14: Stem cell research. No? The Federal government is going back into stem cell research. Do we still need a California plan?

Prop. 21: More rent control. Tepid Yes. I think Naomi is No. These specific additions seem OK to me. A 15-year window is more than long enough to understand the market for a new property. On the other hand, I don’t want vote in a way that may perpetuate the idea that rent control offers a solution to the Bay Area’s housing supply problem. For that reason, I’m a hard No on Berkeley’s drastic Prop. MM.

Prop. 24: OK, I am embarrassed, as a software guy, to say I haven’t researched this enough to make up my mind. I think more people I respect are on the Yes side (e.g., Ro Khanna), but there are groups recommending No who are also good, e.g., state ACLU. Maybe the fact the California Republican Party is a No means I should be a Yes.

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I am in the process of changing the donations page to six House races that didn’t look competitive until recently. These are all uphill races, but they are possible in a landslide. We really are building a Blue Wave. These are races where I am worried the Democrat needs more money, but on just that criterion I could have picked four times as many. I restricted myself to a list of the most reprehensible Republicans.

CO-03 (Diane Mitsch Busch over Lauren Boebert) Boebert is the Q-Anon nut who loves her Second Amendment and hates her mask. She might quit Congress when Nancy Pelosi tells her that guns are prohibited and masks are required on the House floor, but better not to send her in the first place.

NY-01 (Nancy Goroff over Lee Zeldin) Zeldin yields to no one in Islamophobia and connection to Israel’s right-wing. Time to put an end to bigotry.

OH-01 (Kate Schroder over Steve Chabot) Chabot has been a mediocrity even by GOP Standards (anti-evolution, anti-climate change, fanatical on abortion), but COVID–19 has truly given him an opportunity to come into his own, fulminating against China all the way into summer instead of doing anything here to stop it.

SC-02 (Adair Ford Boroughs over Joe Wilson) You remember Joe Wilson, right? He is the man who yelled “You lie!” at President Obama, back when the GOP was cool with disrespecting the President. Need I say more?

TX-02 (Sima Ladjevardian over Dan Crenshaw) Crenshaw got off to a promising start with a feel-good Saturday Night Live appearance, but since then he has gone Full Trump. There is often an undertone of violence towards Dems in his recent statements. Let’s help him get a new career as Fox TV Action Hero.

VA-05 (Cameron Webb over Bob Good) Good is bad. He upset the Republican incumbent in the primary with a message that a Republican Representative should lose because he officiated a gay wedding. Because of covid, he was able win a drive-by convention instead of a full primary. His opponent is an M.D. Has this district absorbed enough D.C. exurbanites to flip?

A post on Steven Vincent Benét and the Democrats’ longstanding reluctance to manipulate the courts.

Even today, while Blue Dog Democrat Joe Manchin is finally hopping mad over the hasty Barrett nomination, our own Dianne Feinstein is pooh-poohing the idea of court packing. It’s also become obvious that conservative Supreme Court justices pay attention to the timing of their replacements, and liberals do not. The only recent conservative justice to leave the bench under a Democratic President was Antonin Scalia, whose departure was unscheduled. (Last before him was the retirement of moderate-right Byron “Whizzer” White, in 1993.)

The connection to Benét is his famous short story “The Devil and Daniel Webster“, which he subsequently rewrote as a play and opera libretto. To summarize the plot, New Hampshire farmer Jabez Stone sells his soul to the Devil in return for years of good luck. Eventually Mr. Scratch returns to collect. Stone hires famed attorney Daniel Webster to try to save himself from Hell. Webster insists successfully that Stone is entitled to a trial, but the Devil in return picks the judge and jury. The judge is John Hathorne, who presided enthusiastically over some of the Salem Witch Trials. The jurors include the pirate Blackbeard and other malefactors.

Nevertheless, with his stirring advocacy (“You were men, once!”), Webster wins an acquittal, and moreover forces the Devil to agree never to bother a New Hampshireman again.

The Democratic leadership are all dreaming of their success as the modern-day Daniel Webster (who opposed the Democratic Party his entire career), who gets votes from Roberts, Gorsuch, the potential new Justice Barrett, perhaps even roué Brett Boofanaugh. Watch me salvage Obamacare, or even Roe! The conservative justices are not monolithic: Gorsuch appears to be the most sympathetic to Native Americans, including all the liberals, in at least a generation. But on cases that tilt the political playing field in the Republicans’ favor, they have never shown mercy. Bush v. Gore. Citizens United. Shelby County (Voting Rights Act). Voter ID cases. Cases on loosening rules for the 2020 pandemic. Not a single conservative defection.

Right now, the lily-white Republican Party, counting both its explicitly racist Trump vanguard and its business rump, attracts not more than 45% of the national electorate. Maintaining permanent minority rule is exactly why these Federalist Society judges are on the bench. Preservation of Republican supremacy has moved from the ballot box to the courts, and no amount of eloquence or legal brilliance will fix that. Six new progressive seats on the Supreme Court, on the other hand…

1. The final batch of postcards arrived. Tony the Dem has a good campaign for Jon Ossoff so stop by and get the cards while they are hot — let’s finish them off supporting Jon O. Let me know if you need help with getting addresses etc. We are out of Julie Oliver addresses so this will be our focus and probably our last postcard campaign.
2. We passed $35,000 and are heading to $40,000. Encourage nervous friends to donate instead of complain.
3. Need a buddy? Karen and Judy are busy texting and ready to help. Bill can talk you through phone-bank anxiety. Be ready to switch actions when it is too late to postcard or letter.
4. Finally, reminder about Votefwd from Sally. Look for the campaigns marked with the P inside the circle. Those are the Priority campaigns and go to Dem voters.

For anyone who has time to do something now that they are not writing postcards!

How to Help No Matter How Much Time You Have

1. Make Cure Calls

What You’ll Be Doing: Helping contact voters and walking them through the process to cure their ballots. 

Best for: Anyone with a computer and a phone! 

How: Sign up to make cure calls here

2. Organize a Cure Phone Bank with Your Friends

What You’ll Be Doing: Getting 10+ of your friends together for a virtual cure phonebank, where a trained member of our cure team will come and lead you in making cure calls! 

Best for: Anyone with a lot of like-minded friends who wants to help! 

How: Email ncchasecure@gmail.com with subject “Cure Phone Bank Party”

3. Become a Poll Observer!

What You’ll Be Doing: Being our eyes and ears on the ground during Early Voting and on Election Day. 

Best for: Volunteers on the ground in North Carolina.

How: Sign up here. 

4. Help Staff Our Foreign Language Hotline

What You’ll Be Doing: Staffing our Voter Assistance Hotline for foreign language callers. 

Best for: Anyone fluent in a foreign language! 

Notes: Work can be done staffing the hotline in shifts or on an “on-call” basis. For on-call work, you simply need to be available throughout the day in case a voter calls in a particular language. We know you might have questions about how that works, so just sign up and our hotline team will reach out to explain!

How: Sign up for foreign language hotline here

Want to Take Your Commitment to the Next Level? 

Opportunities for “super volunteers” looking to take on a bigger role in our team 

1. Join Our Cure Team  

What You’ll Be Doing: Leading and training volunteers in virtual phone banks to call disenfranchised voters and help walk them through the process of “curing” their ballot so that it is accepted and counted. 

Best for: Lawyers, law students, or legal professionals with recurring availability. 

Notes: Can be performed remotely, work is on a volunteer basis. 

How: Email ncchasecure@gmail.com with subject “Cure Team.” 

2. Apply to be a Vote Pro Volunteer Fellow

What You’ll Be Doing: Acting as a volunteer fellow, helping our staff to schedule and confirm poll observers, lead phone banks, manage our volunteers, and an assortment of work! 

Best for: Volunteers with 20+ hours per week to give, a strong level of comfort with using technology, and a willingness to take on a major organizing role working closely with our staff. 

Notes: Can be performed remotely, work is on a volunteer basis. 

How: Email othniel.harris@2020victory.com with the subject “Volunteer Fellow Application,” a paragraph about yourself, and a short description of how much availability you have to help and one what timeline.  

Want to Drop Everything for the Next Month and Join Us as a Full Time Volunteer?

Ok, this is a big ask – and honestly probably not right for most people – but if you think you might be up for it … 

1. Apply to be a Vote Pro Volunteer Deputy 

What You’ll Be Doing: Acting as a volunteer deputy to one of our Regional Voter Protection Directors, helping them with all aspects of our program on a full-time basis. 

Best for: Volunteers with a substantial amount of long-term availability (35+ hours per week), a strong level of comfort with using technology, and a willingness to take on a major organizing role working closely with our staff. 

Notes: Can be performed remotely, work is on a volunteer basis. How: Email othniel.harris@2020victory.com with the subject “Volunteer Deputy Application,” a resume, a paragraph about yourself, and a short description of how much availability you have to help and one what timeline.

(I will post a schedule for phonebanks later this week, but thought this looked just as good as phonebanks. But since it was not phonebanks, it might have more appeal to you, especially since every vote that is cured is a vote for a Democratic candidate. It’s like driving someone to the polls, you will have been responsible for a vote.)

Check out the thermometer! We have blown past $35,000.

Two Action Items

1. We have been asked to write postcards for Julie Oliver (TX-25). She was coincidentally added to the Red to Blue list today, which means the DCCC has quietly done polling showing a meaningful chance of the upset. We have a very few names left; get them while you still can. We still have addresses. Email Naomi if you want some (25 minimum).
2. Download the Vote Joe app on your smartphone and you can use it to text contacts in swing states, find out which friends (?!?) are still not registered to vote and much more. Victory2020 offers trainings for the app every day lots of other great activities listed there as well: https://www.mobilize.us/2020victory/

My presentation. The key takeaways are largely unchanged: Biden is winning the legitimate election. Even before the tax returns, Trump and the Republicans had abandoned traditional electioneering in favor of F.U.D. [Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt], hoping for some grievance they can bring to the stacked Supreme Court. The Roberts Court may fear that if they rule for Trump during the election in any way, and Biden wins, he will reciprocate by adding new seats.

Florida is the key to a Biden win so big it can’t be tampered with. Absentee ballots can be counted before Election Day, so by midnight Eastern Time the winner may be obvious. Florida is close.

The most pressing need for volunteers appears to be phone banking. The Wellstone Club has joined with Flip the West. From their email—

Join us on Wednesday afternoons. We are teaming up with Flip the West for a phone bank focused on flipping U.S. Senate seats in Iowa and Kansas, every Wednesday 3-5 (Pacific) from now until the November election. To register, click here or below.

You will get instructions by email after you register for a phone bank session.  If you have questions about how to get your computer set up for the calls – or about the Senate races, please call or text!  Ann Schwartz 510-387-4761.  

Training available Oct 3-4.  Would you like to phone bank, but not sure how to get set up? Flip the West is providing a weekend of training sessions, Oct 3-4.  There’s a one-hour “basic” session at 10AM on Saturday and 11AM on Sunday, plus much more.  For schedule and registration, click here or below.

We have a link for Florida texting, courtesy of Judy Stacey:

Calling all young people! We are hosting a GenZ friendbank this Thursday at 8pm EST to talk with our friends about their plan to vote! RSVP Here: https://www.mobilize.us/fl2020victory/event/333504/not a young person? share it with a young person in your life!!

I don’t see why the young at heart are being excluded.

Also from Judy, a second texting group, helping young voters with vote by mail.

If you can’t read this, it isn’t for you. También tenemos un hipervínculo por ser voluntario a textear en español. Flórida es un objetivo.

Don’t miss Bruce’s links.

Wednesday’s Indivisible CA statewide call was rich with ideas and opportunities for activism. Here are links for the call notes and chat box comments, which in turn provide links to key resources for national and state actions. 

At the state level, Nina Moussavi pointed out that seven of the State Strong priority bills are still awaiting signature by the Governor, and urged support for those bills at  leg.unit@gov.ca.gov. The  call notes have other links to state actions for TJ Cox, Christy Smith, and other key California races. In a discussion of upcoming propositions, various CA Indivisible groups provided links to published analyses of what’s at stake with each proposition. At the national level, Nina supplied extensive lists of actions and resources for the critical weeks ahead, all recorded in the chat box.

Agenda to follow. A busy two weeks.

Indivisible Elmwood
Time: Sep 27, 2020 04:30 PM Pacific Time (US and Canada)

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I don’t have a cool graph, but here is an updated look at Senate races. Most of the Cash on Hand figures are completely obsolete but it will be end of the month before anything more recent is available.

Besides changing my own bang-for-buck rating, I have changed the Pundit Assessments to match their current predictions. All changes went in our favor.

For an explanation of the re-rankings, see my longer post.