Quick Update

A full set of minutes from our meeting today will be posted tomorrow (thanks to everyone for a great meeting!). Remember to send me an email (when you are ready) with your 100 Days Goals. How many postcards, letters, texts and phone calls will you try to make before election day? Andy will set up a goal chart which is an anonymous total so everyone gets credit for everything we do!

Meanwhile I want to respond to Judy’s questions about our donation strategies. Please take from this what is useful to you and discard the rest.

For the lowest tier on local state and house races, $100 is fabulous and less is very, very helpful. For the next tier, we will give a big chunk to our two main House races (Cox and Hart) since their expenses are on a different scale. In addition, smaller donations to (hard to turn them down when they call):
Galvin (Alaska) (she plays bridge!)

Mucarsel-Powell (FL)
Brzozowski (IL)
Kunkel (WV) (slightly less hopeless than Swearingen)
Swearingen (WV) (hopeless but a left candidate)
Vazquez (FL)
Imam (TX) (software engineer so Andy had to donate)
Torres-Small (NM) (this is important race)
Lombard (KS)
Driskell (MI)
Hoadley (MI)
Tipernini (AZ) (out of nostalgia)
Stevens (MI)
Dirksen Londrigan (IL)
Hicks (KY)
Goroff (NY)

(early in the cycle we gave small donations to Underwood and Ortiz-Jones but they are well-funded now, same with Harder)

Senate: Main donations to our candidates Gross and Ossoff, token donations to Jordan in Idaho since she is a Native American, Bullock, Greenfield and Bollier.

Zoom link for Aug 2

Time: Aug 2, 2020 04:30 PM Pacific Time (US and Canada)

Join Zoom Meeting

Meeting ID: 839 4742 1997

Passcode: 231331

One tap mobile

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Meeting ID: 839 4742 1997

Passcode: 231331

Find your local number: https://us02web.zoom.us/u/kekB7ctRFo

A look at Senate Bang for Buck

Judy Stacey was nice enough to get me a speaking slot to the Wellstone Democratic Club. My points were familiar to Indivisible Elmwood participants.

  • Don’t give money out of spite (McGrath in KY, probably Gideon in ME).
  • Don’t give money to candidates who already have all they can use (Kelly in AZ, Jones in AL).
  • Look for Democratic candidates for whom money can truly make the difference between winning and losing (Gross in AK, Ossoff in GA)

I prepared a spreadsheet that also showed how much more (or less) our candidates have compared to the opponent.

EDIT: A full-size version of this spreadsheet is here, and of our slate, here.

Bang for Buck spreadsheet

Minutes from July 19

Well, if you were at the meeting, you will understand that I am enabling the Waiting Room. The alternative is not exposing the link in a public forum, which will complicate our long-term growth strategy. I will have someone make sure you don’t get left in Purgatory.

We made decision on current fund-raising (Al Gross, Jon Ossoff now; House and State House races later). The ActBlue page has been updated and I reset the thermometer. Let’s send it high again.

I also reviewed why I think these races are good value for money and effort.

For the special campaign of Vote Forward for August 11, which is to get Floridians to vote in their August 11 primary, either email Naomi or go to http://www.votefwd.com.

Bruce said the last national Indivisible call had “a lot of meat”—Call notes. He also plans to sign up for the virtual workshop Training to Win 2020: How We Win During a Pandemic. Also, VirusFreeVoting.org rolls the Voterizer app on Saturday, July 25th at 5:00 (PT) on social media. Theme is a Trump Retirement Party.

We are going to try to coordinate our auction items with EBAA, which has an auction of its own.

Zoom link for July 19 meeting

Topic: Indivisible Elmwood
Time: Jul 19, 2020 04:30 PM Pacific Time (US and Canada)

Join Zoom Meeting

Meeting ID: 871 6899 7501
Passcode: 970545
One tap mobile
+16699006833,,87168997501#,,,,,,0#,,970545# US (San Jose)
+13462487799,,87168997501#,,,,,,0#,,970545# US (Houston)

Dial by your location
+1 669 900 6833 US (San Jose)
+1 346 248 7799 US (Houston)
+1 253 215 8782 US (Tacoma)
+1 929 205 6099 US (New York)
+1 301 715 8592 US (Germantown)
+1 312 626 6799 US (Chicago)
Meeting ID: 871 6899 7501
Passcode: 970545
Find your local number: https://us02web.zoom.us/u/keeSBAEwW8

Quick update

At our meeting this Sunday at 4:30 we’ll finalize our slate.

Meanwhile, I have lots of T.J. Cox addresses for anyone who wants some. Postcards on the porch. Email me for addresses.

Click here for Day of Action for T. J.

Finally, we will be swapping in a new campaign for our thermometer so let’s do a final push for our two North Carolina candidates before our meeting.

Alaska polls

Public Policy Polling (PPP) is out with polling from Alaska.

You heard it here first, but these are the sleeper races. They have Biden trailing Trump by 3, 45–48. Al Gross is still almost unknown, but trails by only 5, 34–39. (An incumbent with 39 is in trouble.) And Alyse Galvin is up(!) 2, 43–41.

Kos says,

Alaskan voters don’t seem to realize there’s a Senate race this fall. Democrats need to change that ASAP, and Alaska is a dirt cheap state to advertise in. Not sure what the hold up is. 

Good point. Although Gross has been outraised so far, he’s being noticed. He’s done several joint fundraisers with better-known Lower 48 Democrats. My next check to him will suggest it’s time for him to get moving.

Minutes from July 5 meeting

Most of the meeting was discussion of Indivisible Elmwood endorsements. I presented a chart.

We eliminated the strikeouts, either as too much of a long shot, or because we think we will be just as effective supporting down-ballot races in the same jurisdiction. (Since the meeting, Bullock and Cunningham reported enormous cash hauls, making up significant deficits relative to Team COVID.) We will make a final decision at the next meeting. Current prospects are in yellow background. Bollier may be added if Kobach is her opponent.

Current polling is, of course, favorable. Here is an Internet op-ed from the WaPo pointing out conventional wisdom in April and May was that Trump had reached his nadir, but fell further. If the coronavirus picks up in the Sun Belt, which looks very plausible right now, even Trump’s current support could weaken.

In other meeting news, Bruce reported that the Movement Voter Project was favorably impressed with donations that came in through Indivisible Elmwood links. And Judy spoke favorable of Alameda Supervisor candidate Vinnie Bacon: much better on law and justice than the conservative competitor. We’ll be hearing more about him, too.