Well, it’s far from what we hoped, but at least not the abyss that seemed possible. I imagine most of you have received the Flip the West email about their multi-pronged GA campaign–phone banks, texting, and postcards. We all know the drill. I just signed up for texting and post carding. Since I can’t figure out how to post the Flip the West call and volunteer links here, I’ll forward them to Andy. Or just email me at judith.stacey@nyu.edu if you’d like me to email it to you personally. Onward, and solidarity

[Psalm 30:5 KJV, if you are keeping track]

OK, it isn’t joy. Just relief. Downballot we lost badly, although the magnitude isn’t yet clear. Let’s get straight to the good news:

1. At the moment, Biden is leading in 270 EV, including Nebraska–02, which is called. This means Trump can’t insist on a nationwide stoppage of counting just because it is now Wednesday. Biden overtook Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan in the middle of the night, and there is no reason to believe he will relinquish it. WI is almost done and Trump is already demanding a recount, which will be just as ineffective as the ones we ordered in 2016.
2. The rest of the 270 comes from Biden leading in Arizona. Nate Cohn of the NY Times explains that the uncounted votes are late by-mail, which have tended Democratic, but more outstanding ballots are Republican. (Perhaps more Republicans deliberately didn’t vote?) The votes also appear to be from the Phoenix and Tucson areas, favorable.
3. Trump is claiming Nevada. They probably hoped to be ahead at the last tally on Tuesday (see Point 1) but they are 8000 behind. The remaining votes include at least 50,000 mail ballots from Clark County (Las Vegas), which will drive up the margin past whatever I can imagine they reclaim from the numerous provisional same-day-registrant ballots.
4. About 10:30 last night, Atlanta finally began to report, and the NY Times needle quickly shifted to expecting a tiny Biden victory in Georgia(!). The count has been stuck at about 92% in for hours. It’s also possible that Ossoff can climb into a runoff from the final Atlanta votes. (Warnock and Loeffler will be in a runoff.)
5. If, and it is a big if, the Pennsylvania number of remaining mail ballots is correct, the NY Times says Biden will pull ahead, even though he is 8 points behind now. The Red Mirage Blue Shift in action.

Summary: Biden needs one of Arizona, Georgia, or Pennsylvania. He is ahead in AZ, and apparently better than 50/50 chances to catch up in the other two.

What I would have said at today’s meeting, if it weren’t the off Sunday.

Again, Joe Biden will win the legitimate election. Nate Silver has Trump’s chances at 11%. That is with the Selzer poll showing him well ahead in Iowa. In 2016 he had 30%. That is a big difference. Trump’s private pollster has told him that he is ahead in MI and WI, tied in PA. If that is so, it would mean a massive polling miss, above the usual “margin of error” across numerous states and down ballot races. Somehow, the Theory of the Shy Trump Voter coexists with the Reality of the Obnoxious Trump Voter.

Early voting statistics are difficult to follow in most states, but an acknowledged expert is Jon Ralston in Nevada. Nevada is an unusually good state for this analysis because early voting was already common there, although this year there was less in person and more mail. It also helps that the vote is highly concentrated by geography. Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson; favors Blue) is two thirds of the state. Washoe County (Reno) is half the remainder (about even D/R). All the other counties are consolidated as “the rurals”. They went Republican by over 40 points in 2016. This year it looks like they need at least +50. Short version: Trump is running behind his 2016 loss.

So, on to the illegitimate election. Not that there are surprises, but Trump aides have leaked the plan. Step one: Trump wins Florida, which counts fast. Not impossible: 538 has his odds there at 34% and I think that’s low. Step two: Trump leverages a large lead in Election Day votes in two of PA, MI, WI [just PA is not enough for 270 Trump EV] to declare victory even while those states are still counting the heavily-Blue mailed ballots already received (this isn’t about the throw-out-late-ballots lawsuits). Trump encourages supporters to celebrate victory and stop further counting of “fraudulent” mailed ballots in those states. I assume this will be accomplished by physical intimidation, since even the current Supreme Court can’t find a reason to throw out millions of mailed ballots timely received—although I do expect them to enforce any witness or secrecy envelope requirements, even ones that were purportedly waived by executive action on account of COVID–19. Step three: Trump asks Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus how you stay in power despite protests and general strikes. (And Trump will probably come closer to legitimate victory than Lukashenko did.)

I don’t think this will work. Not because of the fabled, but hollow, American government institutions, but because at this point Florida looks like Biden’s fourth-best state in the once-Red Sunbelt (AZ, NC, GA, FL, TX, probably in that order). If Biden holds leads in MI and WI at, say, 11:00 pm ET, Trump has to be sweeping all four of these states. Impossible. Arizona will only just have closed the polls. Suppose Trump is still ahead in the MI-WI-PA. His leads will be dropping literally by the minute as the count continues prominently on TV, even if he wins PA in the end. (He is not winning full counts of MI and WI; they are about 10 points against him in multiple polls.) A victory claim at 1:00 am ET Wednesday morning is not going to have enough impact before the light of day burns off his fog of lies. Kos has a similar explanation, including why Trump relies on Michigan over Wisconsin (Milwaukee reports fast).

His second problem will be selling victory to a very skeptical media, including the Fox Decision Desk, which is legit.

His third problem is that the Democrats seem prepared this time, unlike Bush v Gore. I know the top-flight legal team is in place, and I think the PR team has learned from Warren Christopher’s feckless 2000 performance. I just hope we also have some muscle in case Team Fascist has fantasies of stormtroopers stealing the ballot boxes.

Two more days. Breathe.

1. Please note that Andy changed our gathering time Tuesday to 6:00 pm–bring dinner or drinks or both. Here is the link: Join Zoom Meeting
2. Check out our final $$ total. Amazing!
3. Just got off a phone bank to Florida–helped a 91 year-old Biden voter figure out that what she thought was a mail-in ballot is really a request for a ballot and she can vote early today and tomorrow in her county. Lots of confused voters out there. Hope everyone is jumping in where they can and staying sane.

This map, from Daily Kos, always holds a certain fascination for me. Why, for example, is Iowa the state with the latest closing time (9:00 pm CT)? I know why Indiana and Kentucky are the earliest (6:00 pm local time); they don’t want too many voters.

Reviewing this, I am moving the start of the Indivisible Elmwood wrap-up to Tuesday 11/3, 6:00 pm PT, because I expect Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina numbers to be coming in by then, and good showings there for Democrats will put the election out of reach for Team Pinochet right from the start.

Join Zoom Meeting

I promised predictions. I am still mulling over the details, but at this point our GOTV efforts are about running up the score.

Biden will win. A minimum—I haven’t decided about toss-ups—is Clinton plus MI, WI, PA, FL, AZ, and NE-02. (No comment yet on IA, NC, GA.) Popular vote by at least 7. The margins in WI and PA will exceed the number that Barrett and Boofanaugh dare throw out.

We will win the Senate, at least 51.

We will extend our control in the House, picking up at least four in Texas alone while losing at most three.

Kos is right (this happens often): instead of panicking and saying everyone has to campaign in terror as if we are 10 points down, we campaign with joy and confidence that we are in the right, that a majority of the country agrees, and with more work we can do even better.

1. We passed $45,000. Andy updated the thermometer with state races since so many of the Senate and House races are flush. These State races are focused on three states where Dems can flip state houses. If your friends are upset about today’s Supreme Court confirmation, send them the link to chip in. As the ruling from the Supreme Court today on voting demonstrates, we’ll need Dems at every level of government.
2. People gave reports on their activities. Lots of enthusiasm about Flip the West for their easy-to-use phone banking and texting platforms. If anyone wants help getting active on the final weekend, let us know and we’ll help you find a phone bank buddy. Phone banking is the most needed activity from now on.
3. Bruce gave out a link with State Strong California Indivisible info on Protect The Vote. Here it is again. Definitely worth looking at. If things go south we’ll meet Wednesday Nov 5th at 5:00 at our usual protest location. Please bring extra masks.
4. We will gather on election eve, Nov 3rd at 7:00 pm for Andy’s analysis of the unfolding vote counting and general discussion. We’ll post a Zoom link before the event. Have wine handy.
5. Gideon read Henry V’s St. Crispin’s Day speech since amazingly Sunday was the 605th anniversary of the event. For any who missed it, private recitations can be arranged.
6. THAT WAS OUR LAST REGULARLY SCHEDULED MEETING. Many thanks to those who attended, to those who have been with us at previous meetings and those who follow us via our website. As the Bard says,”This story ( of Elmwood Indivisible) shall the good man (and woman) teach his son (and daughter).

The Democratic Senate candidates have all the money they need. Even professionals raising money for them say this.

Apparently, nearly all the Democratic House candidates have all the money they need. (By the way, the marvelous Alexandria Ocasio Cortez pointed out that Republican spite-giving has raised almost $10 million for her opponent, who will lose by 20, 30, maybe 50 points.)

So, Democratic institutions are looking further down the ballot, into the State Legislatures. I’ve received slates from Give Smart, Future is Female, and Daily Kos. Give Smart is only Wisconsin; the others are mostly North Carolina, Arizona, and Texas. Swing Left also has a page for North Carolina.

Rather than copy their slates, I have put the NC, TX, and AZ umbrella state organizations on our ActBlue page, along with a few non-legislative down ballot candidates. Of course, you can also donate through the links above and through the national DLCC.

Link for the Zoom meeting, October 25

Andrew Lazarus is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Topic: Indivisible Elmwood
Time: Oct 25, 2020 04:30 PM Pacific Time (US and Canada)

Join Zoom Meeting

Meeting ID: 833 1933 9353
Passcode: 342557
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I am not going to make changes to our thermometer, but on a morning call today, J Street’s race-watcher, who follows everything even more closely than I do, mentioned five tossup House races with Blue momentum.

Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (IL-13), Hillary Scholten (MI-03), Dan Feehan (MN-01), Cameron Webb (VA-05) [use our thermometer], and Kathleen Williams (MT-AL).

We have had Scholten, Williams, and Webb up at our ActBlue at various times. Feehan is a 2018 rematch and a win would balance a likely loss in the Iron Range, MN-07, where long-time Conservadem Colin Peterson is running for re-election in a district Trump won by over 20.

J Street also mentioned what could be this cycle’s negative blind-side result: Peter DeFazio in OR-04 is in trouble. (Ratings agencies moved him from Solid to Lean D, and his internal polling is worse.) DeFazio is a true progressive. His opponent, Alex Skarlatos, is the 2020 version of Dan Crenshaw: a young military vet of unquestioned personal courage and undeniable charisma, who doesn’t seem to know much about policy and is likely to learn from the absolute worst people.

I’ve put up one more Texas race: Mike Siegel in TX–10, who is repeating his 2018 challenge to Michael McCaul. He lost by 4 in 2018, without getting much attention. He’s a Bernie liberal.

We may still be a cycle or two early, but Texas is where we can pick up significant numbers of seats. There just aren’t many Republicans in California to toss out any more. Texas CDs 3, 10, 21, 22, 23, 24 are all highly competitive (Lean R or better). TX–02, already up, is one of several that can flip on a good night.

If you can, there are many state legislature races looking for small amounts of money. Look for lists from Daily Kos or Democratic Party sources.