I am not going to make changes to our thermometer, but on a morning call today, J Street’s race-watcher, who follows everything even more closely than I do, mentioned five tossup House races with Blue momentum.
Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (IL-13), Hillary Scholten (MI-03), Dan Feehan (MN-01), Cameron Webb (VA-05) [use our thermometer], and Kathleen Williams (MT-AL).
We have had Scholten, Williams, and Webb up at our ActBlue at various times. Feehan is a 2018 rematch and a win would balance a likely loss in the Iron Range, MN-07, where long-time Conservadem Colin Peterson is running for re-election in a district Trump won by over 20.
J Street also mentioned what could be this cycle’s negative blind-side result: Peter DeFazio in OR-04 is in trouble. (Ratings agencies moved him from Solid to Lean D, and his internal polling is worse.) DeFazio is a true progressive. His opponent, Alex Skarlatos, is the 2020 version of Dan Crenshaw: a young military vet of unquestioned personal courage and undeniable charisma, who doesn’t seem to know much about policy and is likely to learn from the absolute worst people.