Weeping may endure for a night, but joy cometh in the morning

[Psalm 30:5 KJV, if you are keeping track]

OK, it isn’t joy. Just relief. Downballot we lost badly, although the magnitude isn’t yet clear. Let’s get straight to the good news:

  1. At the moment, Biden is leading in 270 EV, including Nebraska–02, which is called. This means Trump can’t insist on a nationwide stoppage of counting just because it is now Wednesday. Biden overtook Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan in the middle of the night, and there is no reason to believe he will relinquish it. WI is almost done and Trump is already demanding a recount, which will be just as ineffective as the ones we ordered in 2016.
  2. The rest of the 270 comes from Biden leading in Arizona. Nate Cohn of the NY Times explains that the uncounted votes are late by-mail, which have tended Democratic, but more outstanding ballots are Republican. (Perhaps more Republicans deliberately didn’t vote?) The votes also appear to be from the Phoenix and Tucson areas, favorable.
  3. Trump is claiming Nevada. They probably hoped to be ahead at the last tally on Tuesday (see Point 1) but they are 8000 behind. The remaining votes include at least 50,000 mail ballots from Clark County (Las Vegas), which will drive up the margin past whatever I can imagine they reclaim from the numerous provisional same-day-registrant ballots.
  4. About 10:30 last night, Atlanta finally began to report, and the NY Times needle quickly shifted to expecting a tiny Biden victory in Georgia(!). The count has been stuck at about 92% in for hours. It’s also possible that Ossoff can climb into a runoff from the final Atlanta votes. (Warnock and Loeffler will be in a runoff.)
  5. If, and it is a big if, the Pennsylvania number of remaining mail ballots is correct, the NY Times says Biden will pull ahead, even though he is 8 points behind now. The Red Mirage Blue Shift in action.

Summary: Biden needs one of Arizona, Georgia, or Pennsylvania. He is ahead in AZ, and apparently better than 50/50 chances to catch up in the other two.

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