This map, from Daily Kos, always holds a certain fascination for me. Why, for example, is Iowa the state with the latest closing time (9:00 pm CT)? I know why Indiana and Kentucky are the earliest (6:00 pm local time); they don’t want too many voters.
Reviewing this, I am moving the start of the Indivisible Elmwood wrap-up to Tuesday 11/3, 6:00 pm PT, because I expect Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina numbers to be coming in by then, and good showings there for Democrats will put the election out of reach for Team Pinochet right from the start.
I promised predictions. I am still mulling over the details, but at this point our GOTV efforts are about running up the score.
Biden will win. A minimum—I haven’t decided about toss-ups—is Clinton plus MI, WI, PA, FL, AZ, and NE-02. (No comment yet on IA, NC, GA.) Popular vote by at least 7. The margins in WI and PA will exceed the number that Barrett and Boofanaugh dare throw out.
We will win the Senate, at least 51.
We will extend our control in the House, picking up at least four in Texas alone while losing at most three.
Kos is right (this happens often): instead of panicking and saying everyone has to campaign in terror as if we are 10 points down, we campaign with joy and confidence that we are in the right, that a majority of the country agrees, and with more work we can do even better.
Indivisible Elmwood 