No go in CA–25

There isn’t enough data yet fully to understand Christy Smith’s loss in CA–25, not until the mail ballots are finished and we see how much ground she makes up, and who voted at the last minute. She won’t, however, make up her Election Night deficit of over 11 points. (I’d guess when it’s all over, she loses by 4 to 6.)

Preliminary indications are that (1) Democratic falloff from 2018 was more then Republican, (2) fewer Republican defections and worse showing among non-party independents. (1) we can fix in November. (2) is a consequence of a somewhat stronger Republican candidate—Latino, veteran, no previous record of Trump fluffing—that will be the same in November. I’ve read that Garcia’s TV ads were both more widely played and better than Smith’s, and that the DCCC decided to hold its fire in this district for the general election.

Hey DCCC: Let’s not make this a trend.

UPDATE [May 15]: Smith does not appear to be narrowing the gap in any meaningful way. Current totals (with no indication how many ballots are left) have her about 14½ points behind in Ventura County, which is a small part of the district, and a little over 8 behind in LA County. That is, the result is (even) worse than it first appeared to be. I hope the Smith campaign is reviewing its messaging. They didn’t lack for virtual canvassers.

UPDATE [June 7]: Final result seems to be loss by 9.8.

Minutes of the May 10 meeting

Many of us were coming from the last-minute phone bank for Christy Smith (CA-25). If the race is close when the results as of Tuesday night are known, we are in good shape. If not… The process was smoother than in previous campaigns, although Naomi said the instructions from an earlier session run by Swing Left San Francisco were better.

Action Items

  1. Phone Bank for Arizona, May 17, 1:00–3:00. Organized by Indivisible East Bay. We are encouraging voters to apply for vote-by-mail status.
  2. Flip the West also have virtual text banks and phone banks. And so do Swing Left.
  3. We have lots of postcards and stamps. I will be putting up some sort of thermometer, and people can report back to me how many they have written.
  4. Bruce reported that Vote Forward finds letters increase voter turnout by four points. You can get their letters at the link.

🚨Replacement Sunday meeting🚨

Initial ballot counts for the CA–25 special election (Christy Smith vs Mike Garcia, a Hispanic Republican veteran) are not favorable. The ballots received so far have many more R than D voters. The voting deadline is postmarked Tuesday. (There are also a small number of in-person polling places and drop boxes, but no one seems to expect significant voting in person. All voters were mailed an absentee ballot.)

In lieu of our regular meeting, Naomi and I have signed up to do GOTV phone banking. We do not want to take the morale hit that would come from letting Team MAGA-Drink-Bleach flip this district.

Swing Left virtual phone bank link.

You should sign up, if you can join us, 24 hours in advance. The event runs 2:30 to 5:00, and if people are interested,, at 5:00 we can have our own brief meeting to discuss it.

From Indivisible East Bay

Work with IEB on 2020 Elections: Polls Close in 6 Months!  We’ve all heard that shelter-in-place is officially set to continue through May,and Indivisible East Bay’s remote activism will continue with it, as we all do our part to minimize the virus’ spread.One way you can help: join us for remote phone-banking, which is now officially live and active! Last Sunday, a small-but-mighty team gathered on Zoom and called 150 voters to turn out the mail-in vote for Tricia Zunker in Wisconsin’s upcoming special election and recruit volunteers for Mark Kelly in Arizona. One particularly fiery AZ voter told us she’s been sending a donation to Kelly every time she gets an email from the McSally campaign. Another said her yard was proudly sporting a Biden sign among a sea of signs for the bleach-proponent-in-chief. We even walked an enthusiastic long-time voter & first-time vote-by-mail-er through the absentee ballot request process. Sound like fun to you? We’ll be (virtually) here this Saturday and have phone banks planned for every Saturday in May
2020 Voter Outreach Events
Canvasses:Canvassing is on hold for now, but please fill out this form to be notified as soon as it’s back on.
Remote Phone & Text Banks:Phone Bank to Wisconsin and Arizona 5/2Phone Bank to Wisconsin and Arizona 5/9Phone Bank to Arizona 5/16Text Bank to Win in 2020 5/17Phone Bank to Arizona 5/23Phone Bank to Arizona 5/30Remote Text Bank to Win in 2020 5/30
Other Voter Outreach:We’re looking to expand our outreach to Spanish-speaking voters in Arizona and beyond. Please click here to add your name to our list of people available to phone bank in Spanish. 
Note: if your info is stored with EveryAction, clicking this link will automatically add you to the list. Want to write postcards from home?
Email fiona.IndivisibleEastBay1@gmail.com and we’ll give you complete instructions, scripts and addresses from one of the groups we work with.

Sorry the formatting didn’t come through well.

Sweden

We hear a lot about how successful Sweden’s more relaxed isolation measures are. So far in April, they have 33% excess deaths compared to 2015–19. (In fairness, after we get the US figures, which for some reason are compiled much more slowly, we may be there too. Sweden, however, seems to have rising daily deaths while we appear to have peaked.)

Four articles

The best article on how we got here:

We Are Living in a Failed State by George Packer, The Atlantic, June 2020

When the virus came here, it found a country with serious underlying conditions, and it exploited them ruthlessly. Chronic ills—a corrupt political class, a sclerotic bureaucracy, a heartless economy, a divided and distracted public—had gone untreated for years. …

Both parties were slow to grasp how much credibility they’d lost [in the 2008 financial meltdown]. The coming politics was populist. Its harbinger wasn’t Barack Obama but Sarah Palin, the absurdly unready vice-presidential candidate who scorned expertise and reveled in celebrity. She was Donald Trump’s John the Baptist [what a phrase! —AJL].

We Are Living in a Failed State by George Packer, The Atlantic, June 2020

In somewhat the same vein, Ezra Klein at Vox argues why our governments have become incompetent, well-manifested by our inability to ramp up production of medical equipment. The provocative part of the story is blaming not only the Right wanting government to do nothing, but also the Left worried the government will work to injure the relatively powerless.

The institutions through which Americans build have become biased against action rather than toward it. They’ve become, in political scientist Francis Fukuyama’s term, “vetocracies,” in which too many actors have veto rights over what gets built. That’s true in the federal government. It’s true in state and local governments. It’s even true in the private sector.

Why we can’t build by Ezra Klein

California’s meandering High Speed Rail plan that purports to link San Francisco and Los Angeles gets its due mention.

The empty shelves and government lies remind Emily Gioielli and Leslie Waters at Slate of Eastern Europe 1980, and the danger, especially to our Ruling Party, is that like the faltering dinosaurs of the Warsaw Pact, they broke the social contract made by the paternalist autocrats and the passive citizensof adequate material goods. This seems a little far-fetched to me, but we can never have too much citation of Vaclav Havel.

“Human beings are compelled to live within a lie,” he explained in his treatise, “The Power of the Powerless,” and mimic the meaningless platitudes of state leaders. He explained that the average person went along with this system because they “surrender[ed] higher values when faced with the trivializing temptations of modern civilization.” He further suggested that Eastern Europe should serve as a “warning to the West, revealing its own latent tendencies.”

Is America Becoming Eastern Europe by Emily Gioielli and Leslie Waters

And for a day-by-day analysis of how Xi Jinping and Donald Trump imitated each other in using denial and muzzling the press to squander valuable time to prevent disease, The New Republic has them on the cover, with an article by Laurie Garrett, a journalist of epidemics.

Both Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping instinctively sought to repress news of the true danger of their countries’ outbreaks, and the reach of their infection zones, so as to minimize potential political damage to their regimes. Both leaders, displaying parallel if historically distinct brands of authoritarian rule in a crisis, sought to dismiss the counsel of suspect health professionals and other experts. … The larger political story of the 2020 coronavirus crisis, in other words, may well prove to be a powerful case study in the way that governments controlled by leaders prone to unilateral decision-making, and the top-down information regimes they rely on to perpetuate their rule, are all but guaranteed to create maximum conditions of public health breakdown.

Grim Reapers by Laurie Garrett, The New Republic May 2020 [possible paywalled; audioversion also available]

Minutes for the 4/26 meeting

  • Bruce: Report on Indivisible Berkeley and National. We officially endorse Joe Biden, as we committed to endorse the nominee. There was a request to find Nancy Pelosi’s and Dianne Feinstein’s fax numbers. Feinstein’s DC office: (202) 228-3954. Interestingly, Pelosi does not put a fax number on her website, but I find one on a right-wing site urging people to show her the error of her ways.  (202) 225-8259
  • Judy: The action item for the Board of Supervisors meeting is below. [There appears to be an agendum on this same Santa Rita money grab at the Berkeley City Council meeting, where I suspect the outcome is not in doubt —Andy]
  • Bill: EBAA now up to seven interns. Review of Michigan races. More here.
  • Naomi: All quiet on the Tony the Democrat front. We are out of Christy Smith (CA-25) addresses. We have to get ready for texting and phone banking. Bill reported that phone bank volunteers report people are less annoyed at getting calls now that they are shut in. Naomi got help from Commit to Flip Blue for texting training.
  • Andy: A book report on Hiding in Plain Sight. I found the book disappointing in some ways. The two strongest points are the first-person narrative of living through what I call the adjunctification of the economy, where careers are replaced by a sequence of low-paid, no-benefit gigs. Also, what wealth Millennials are able to accumulate is wiped out by student loans and by the loss of their savings and upward transfer of wealth in the aftermath of the 2008 bank collapse. The second strong point is the importance of keeping track of what was once abnormal that becomes normal. The most egregious example may be the unprecedented role of failson Jared and Ivanka. Their presence anywhere near levers of policy show that America is not a meritocracy. I promised links to several articles which I thought showed a more sophisticated understanding. Those will follow. (I am glad to lend out the book to anyone interested.)