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— Republican Voters Against Trump (@RVAT2020) June 5, 2020

I was asked why I don’t think Josh Harder, whom we worked hard for last cycle, needs any more money. Open Secrets has the answer.

Howze had to spend what little he raised on a competitive primary, and he is a weak, racist candidate.

Remember, encourage your friends to come.

Time: Jun 7, 2020 04:30 PM Pacific Time (US and Canada)

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87943519788?pwd=Zm9IRW5kaUVaeHM3RHhybVJSQ2k0Zz09

Agenda:
1. Political report—what a fortnight it was. Polling included.
2. Judy on Kamala Harris phone call. Indivisible East Bay has 2020 Summer Palooza.
3. Diverse other reports.

Forgiveness of Never Trump conservatives should probably be slow, especially for ones like Charlie Sykes who had so much to do with getting us into this mess. (Sykes, a former right-wing radio host, almost single-handedly gave Wisconsin to Scott Walker.) That said, no group is doing as much to discuss the amorality of Trump and his Party, perhaps because the rest of us took it for granted.

Sykes, Bill Kristol, and other refugees from The Weekly Standard, which folded when its Sugar Daddy threw in with Trump, have founded The Bulwark (online only). Here is a sample of articles.

It’s a Set Up [Things have been poised to explode and the black community has been set up for the fall. Again.]

What did They Think Would Happen? The folly of Trump-following mainstream GOP.

Dear Reader, from Lois Lowry, author of the YA classic The Giver.

I admit, these Zoom meetings with our Senate candidates aren’t as much fun without the free food and liquor. But—tomorrow at 5:00 PDT is such a meeting with Amy McGrath (KY), Cal Cunningham (NC), Dr. Al Gross (AK), and Dr. Barbara Bollier (KS). Invitation. Minimum contribution is $100.

I would rank these races, in likelihood of victory, as Cunningham, Gross, Bollier (if Kobach is the Republican nominee, perhaps even ahead of Gross), McGrath. Cunningham is, of course, one of the Big Four in the plan to flip the Senate.

Yesterday, I listened to a Flip the West webinar with Ben Tulchin, a pollster who was working for Bernie and who is now concentrating on Senate races. He not only discussed polls (not much new there: AZ, CO, ME, and NC as the Dems’ Big Four, anticipating a loss in AL, where Jones is 10 behind), but also who has enough money and who doesn’t.

Continue reading →

• The Sister District research project on different ways of reaching voters is here. We had some discussion about the difference between what is most effective, versus what’s more or less comfortable.
• Judy went through one recent phone session without a single valid response.
• The Vote Forward letters appear to be one effective technique. We can help with printing and envelopes. Since the letters are not going out until October, this is a slow but steady operation. The box on our porch has postcards in packets of 25.
• Bruce reported that the California Indivisible calls are informative, and the national calls less so. He’s been particularly impressed with the Movement Voter Project, which supports a number of organizations with different emphases, some technically non-partisan. We’ll be linking our ActBlue donation page to them.
• EBAA’s three races in Michigan all overlap Haley Stevens’s CD. EBAA is also going in on a North Carolina Assembly race that became more difficult as a result of redistricting.
• As my pick for Chart of the Fortnight, I chose the CDC on excess all-cause mortality. It’s the instant visual representation of the right-wing suggestion that we’ve just relabeled the flu.

• These two weeks we want to grow our membership. In the virus era, there is no reason to restrict ourselves to Elmwood and environs. I will make an announcement on my social media. Let me encourage you particularly to invite friends who are not in any group, who are most at risk for despondency.

Next two campaigns are for Alaska. I’m convinced that Dr. Al Gross (yes, another M.D. running) is the sleeper Senate race of the cycle. Alaska has only one House seat: we also have Alyse Galvin, who is making her second try at ousting Dean of the House Don Young. With Young, anything can happen.

For those of you who would like a complete explainer for the Flynn faux-scandal, legal blogger Marcy Wheeler has it.

There isn’t enough data yet fully to understand Christy Smith’s loss in CA–25, not until the mail ballots are finished and we see how much ground she makes up, and who voted at the last minute. She won’t, however, make up her Election Night deficit of over 11 points. (I’d guess when it’s all over, she loses by 4 to 6.)

Preliminary indications are that (1) Democratic falloff from 2018 was more then Republican, (2) fewer Republican defections and worse showing among non-party independents. (1) we can fix in November. (2) is a consequence of a somewhat stronger Republican candidate—Latino, veteran, no previous record of Trump fluffing—that will be the same in November. I’ve read that Garcia’s TV ads were both more widely played and better than Smith’s, and that the DCCC decided to hold its fire in this district for the general election.

Hey DCCC: Let’s not make this a trend.

UPDATE [May 15]: Smith does not appear to be narrowing the gap in any meaningful way. Current totals (with no indication how many ballots are left) have her about 14½ points behind in Ventura County, which is a small part of the district, and a little over 8 behind in LA County. That is, the result is (even) worse than it first appeared to be. I hope the Smith campaign is reviewing its messaging. They didn’t lack for virtual canvassers.

UPDATE [June 7]: Final result seems to be loss by 9.8.