There isn’t enough data yet fully to understand Christy Smith’s loss in CA–25, not until the mail ballots are finished and we see how much ground she makes up, and who voted at the last minute. She won’t, however, make up her Election Night deficit of over 11 points. (I’d guess when it’s all over, she loses by 4 to 6.)

Preliminary indications are that (1) Democratic falloff from 2018 was more then Republican, (2) fewer Republican defections and worse showing among non-party independents. (1) we can fix in November. (2) is a consequence of a somewhat stronger Republican candidate—Latino, veteran, no previous record of Trump fluffing—that will be the same in November. I’ve read that Garcia’s TV ads were both more widely played and better than Smith’s, and that the DCCC decided to hold its fire in this district for the general election.

Hey DCCC: Let’s not make this a trend.

UPDATE [May 15]: Smith does not appear to be narrowing the gap in any meaningful way. Current totals (with no indication how many ballots are left) have her about 14½ points behind in Ventura County, which is a small part of the district, and a little over 8 behind in LA County. That is, the result is (even) worse than it first appeared to be. I hope the Smith campaign is reviewing its messaging. They didn’t lack for virtual canvassers.

UPDATE [June 7]: Final result seems to be loss by 9.8.