Naomi reviewed material on the most effective strategies for GOTV. Postcarding is effective, letter writing more so. (Vote Forward, for letters.) There does not seem to be a problem with contacting people too much, as long as it isn’t an intrusive method like texting. Gentle social pressure and reviewing the actual voting process are better than partisanship. Email Naomi to get postcard addresses for TJ Cox.

I reviewed several upcoming Democratic primaries. Tomorrow we see if tortoise Charles Booker has overtaken hare Amy McGrath for KY-Sen. I tend to put more credence in the polls showing both of them far behind Moscow Mitch than those showing McGrath even with him. There were also several primaries in New York with racial and generational overtones. The NY Times, against type, mostly endorsed youth.

Links to Senate candidates in big bang-for-buck races. Greenfield (Iowa). Bullock (Montana). Cunningham (NC). And rather than donate to Biden generically, we can funnel donations through groups that will push him in a desirable direction. Example: Clean Energy for Biden. (Unfortunately, their name and URL are too easy to misread as “clean energy forbidden”, which is the Republican plan.)

Judy spoke again about the malign Alameda County sheriff. At this point we are trying to remove his support in the county Board of Supervisors. This year the key election is in District One. The progressive candidate in the General Election is Vinnie Bacon, a member of the Fremont City Council.

Bruce is keeping an eye on developments in Indivisible California. Much of the recent call was on Black Lives Matter.

Happy Father’s day, and here is the link.

Andrew Lazarus is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Topic: Indivisible Elmwood
Time: Jun 21, 2020 04:30 PM Pacific Time (US and Canada)

Join Zoom Meeting
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82622082171?pwd=aUREUWVPVlc3NDlmbTVpSG5HaEpIdz09

Meeting ID: 826 2208 2171
Password: 797426
One tap mobile
+16699006833,,82622082171#,,,,0#,,797426# US (San Jose)
+13462487799,,82622082171#,,,,0#,,797426# US (Houston)

My Inbox has also lost weight during the Quarantine, dropping from 54,000 emails to under 30,000, and still shrinking. I just ran across two old emails from “Aaron (the Give Smart guy)” from January, 2019 on the Democrats’ chances to retake the Senate.

Let’s say, we are in much better shape now than it looked then. He expected Doug Jones to lose, meaning we needed four flips. Still the case.

Only Colorado seemed likely. Arizona seemed better-than-even. Maine, worse-than-even, although he correctly predicted Sara Gideon as the strongest challenger to Collins. Montana he correctly predicted as tier-one if Bullock entered after his Presidential campaign collapsed (against Conventional Wisdom, came to pass). North Carolina, Iowa, and Georgia were where the Dems needed to catch up. (We have. In none of those three did he even mention the eventual winner of the D primary.)

I’ve decided to take another look at the Kentucky Senate primary. Charles Booker is getting local endorsements while Amy McGrath keeps running the same two-issue campaign: part personal determination, part Mitch McConnell is evil. I’m not sure that plays well in the long run. McGrath can, of course, turn her $10MM warchest on her primary opponents.

With the pace of news nowadays, I had to Google to learn that Jon Ossoff just cleared the 50 per cent threshold to avoid a runoff. His nearest challenger, Mayor Teresa Tomlinson, had about 15%. Two other candidates won their home counties but trailed even further statewide.

I’m less optimistic about Ossoff than Conventional Wisdom Today, both from the election intrinsics and the certainty that in Georgia the mechanics of voting will be tainted by malice aforethought on top of incompetence.

I was asked why I don’t think Josh Harder, whom we worked hard for last cycle, needs any more money. Open Secrets has the answer.

Howze had to spend what little he raised on a competitive primary, and he is a weak, racist candidate.

Remember, encourage your friends to come.

Time: Jun 7, 2020 04:30 PM Pacific Time (US and Canada)

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87943519788?pwd=Zm9IRW5kaUVaeHM3RHhybVJSQ2k0Zz09

Agenda:
1. Political report—what a fortnight it was. Polling included.
2. Judy on Kamala Harris phone call. Indivisible East Bay has 2020 Summer Palooza.
3. Diverse other reports.

Forgiveness of Never Trump conservatives should probably be slow, especially for ones like Charlie Sykes who had so much to do with getting us into this mess. (Sykes, a former right-wing radio host, almost single-handedly gave Wisconsin to Scott Walker.) That said, no group is doing as much to discuss the amorality of Trump and his Party, perhaps because the rest of us took it for granted.

Sykes, Bill Kristol, and other refugees from The Weekly Standard, which folded when its Sugar Daddy threw in with Trump, have founded The Bulwark (online only). Here is a sample of articles.

It’s a Set Up [Things have been poised to explode and the black community has been set up for the fall. Again.]

What did They Think Would Happen? The folly of Trump-following mainstream GOP.

Dear Reader, from Lois Lowry, author of the YA classic The Giver.

I admit, these Zoom meetings with our Senate candidates aren’t as much fun without the free food and liquor. But—tomorrow at 5:00 PDT is such a meeting with Amy McGrath (KY), Cal Cunningham (NC), Dr. Al Gross (AK), and Dr. Barbara Bollier (KS). Invitation. Minimum contribution is $100.

I would rank these races, in likelihood of victory, as Cunningham, Gross, Bollier (if Kobach is the Republican nominee, perhaps even ahead of Gross), McGrath. Cunningham is, of course, one of the Big Four in the plan to flip the Senate.