Minutes from April 12

Main topic of discussion was the mass media, bothsidesism, and credulity. As an example I mentioned, as great content in The New York Times, the column by Jamelle Bouie on the GOP war on voting and the treasure trove of documents showing government scientists and other officials trying to get Trump to care about the coronavirus. But there has also been some terrible content that doesn’t seem to understand the Zeitgeist: for example, one that couldn’t differentiate between the Republicans and Democrats for the polarized, angry politics of Wisconsin.

Bruce is signing us up with national Indivisible for their campaign for safe elections in the COVID–19 era.

The only current post carding campaign is for Christy Smith in the Special Election Runoff for the seat Katie Hill resigned from.

Judy Stacey’s report on conditions in the Santa Rita jail are posts of their own.

At Ann Brick’s suggestion, this month our site’s Donate page features the Voter Participation Center.

By now, you probably now, our postcards put Jill Karofsky over the top. She is winning by a shocking margin, over six points ahead as I write; likely to be eight after Madison finishes reporting. I am guessing that besides the Indivisible Elmwood crew, credit goes to Ben Wikler, new chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin who has been working full-time on repairing their grassroots voter turnout project.

Speaking of grassroots, Lanny pointed out that with door-to-door canvassing likely to be problematic, even those of us who prefer walking to texting and calling will have to make an adjustment.

Book club meeting: At the meeting in two weeks, I will be discussing Sarah Kendzior’s new book, Hiding in Plain Sight. Kendzior, an expert on authoritarianism, is one of those like Tim Snyder and Masha Gessen who warned us what to expect from the Trump Crime Mob. Links to get the book will be posted later.

Oh, Boy-ay

I was today years old when I learned that the name of our candidate for KS-SEN, Barbara Bollier M.D. is pronounced the same as that of actor Charles Boyer, and does not rhyme with that of former KS-GOV Jon Colyer. Colyer was defeated by nutcase Kris Kobach in the 2018 Republican gubernatorial primary. Kobach then accomplished the near-impossible feat of losing a statewide Kansas election to a Democrat, yet he has decided to try again.

If Kobach wins the Republican primary to oppose Dr Bollier, our chances are good. Unfortunately, he has serious primary opposition, who have not shied away from mentioning his 2018 result.

Upcoming big scandal

Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo put himself on the national map thirteen years ago for picking up a story print media assured him was a nothing-burger: W Bush’s purge of US Attorneys who were either prosecuting corrupt Republicans or who had declined who join the permanent Republican campaign into chimerical Democratic voter fraud. (For this, he became the first Internet journalist to win a George Polk Award.)

He looks to be onto another big one: diversion of medical equipment from both the national stockpile and orders placed by states and hospitals, to politically-connected middlemen, who are then selling them to these same desperate institutions at whatever price the market will bear. In some cases, equipment that was purchased by taxpayers is being resold to be bought by taxpayers a second time. Shipments are even being intercepted by Customs at entry and not seen again. Kickbacks in the form of political contributions to Trump and the GOP are inevitably part of the scheme.

Like the Biden pay-for-play, this crime has the advantage (to the liberals) of being remarkably easy to understand. I have no doubt Congress will be interested.

Sunday April 5 Zoom link

Topic: Coronavirus Data Update
Time: Apr 5, 2020 05:00 PM Pacific Time (US and Canada)

Join Zoom Meeting
https://zoom.us/j/866828148?pwd=TXRCM3AyRVBZZ2c2OW90N3dtS2E4dz09

Meeting ID: 866 828 148
Password: [Our house number; but the direct link should work without it]

One tap mobile
+16699006833,,866828148# US (San Jose)
+13462487799,,866828148# US (Houston)

Dial by your location
+1 669 900 6833 US (San Jose)
+1 346 248 7799 US (Houston)
+1 253 215 8782 US
+1 301 715 8592 US
+1 312 626 6799 US (Chicago)
+1 929 205 6099 US (New York)
Meeting ID: 866 828 148
Find your local number: https://zoom.us/u/aOi8o4ed9

Minutes, March 29 online meeting

  1. Discussion of the direction of the group in the absence of physical meetings. Many participants endorsed the social value of the meetings, and some mentioned getting information that they had not synthesized from their own reading. Of course, we also serve as a central point for distributing postcards and text/card projects.
    Action item: Everyone should have their own wine and, optionally, cheese, chips, or pretzels, since we can no longer serve communally.
  2. The undersigned gave an explanation of some of the more interesting data presentations of coronavirus data. For example, the chart below shows how early intervention in Kentucky did better than later intervention in Tennessee. (This does not extend at this time to deaths, which are not in the chart: KY 8, TN 7.) undefined
    This was accompanied by a refresher on semi-log charts, and why they are being used to graph cumulative cases and deaths. I recommend the charts at the Financial Times and a site called Worldometer. The differential slopes suggest that certain states that have been slow with social distancing, like Louisiana and Florida, are in trouble. Louisiana is even catching up to New York.
  3. There was enough interest that an extra meeting will be added for next Sunday at 5:00 pm (Zoom, obviously), where I will go back over this material with updated data. And this time, we will record it! A Zoom link and a review of exponents and logarithms will be posted later.
  4. Naomi discussed texting technologies, and we are distributing a document from EBAA on the programs themselves and which organizations use which. Almost everyone uses Slack for communication between volunteers.

Conservatarianism is the fraud you always thought it was

Winning the Internet today is an interview of Hoover Institute and NYU Law Professor Richard Epstein by Isaac Chotiner (occasional player at the Piedmont Bridge Club) for The New Yorker, already available online [possible paywall].

Epstein is a giant of libertarian legal studies. The interview shows he is also a pompous ass who doesn’t realize his putative skills in cross-examination do not make him a qualified epidemiologist. Chotiner is in bold below.

Excerpt of New Yorker article
Excerpt of New Yorker article

This is the most powerful avowal of Dunning-Kruger Effect we may ever see from the right wing.

Background

On March 13, Epstein web-published an article (which apparently inspired the Trump Mob’s thoughts of an Easter Economic Resurrection) that, using a sophisticated cherry-picked model based on multiple false assumptions of virus behavior, predicted 500 total USA COVID-19 deaths. On March 19, faced with the superiority of the 11th-grade exponential growth model to his libertarian fantasy, he changed some fudge factors and replaced 500 with 2500. Just in time, too; we crossed 500 on the 23rd. Less than 24 hours later, the 2500 death prediction was replaced by 5000.

If you go to the the Epstein article’s comments, you can see I offered Epstein (and several of his anonymous acolytes there) a $1000 bet we would have 10,000 deaths (double his latest wild guess reasoned estimate) by end of April. I am surprised that none have shown the least interest in this style of Applied Capitalism.

[For a sense of how crazy Epstein is, Trump himself declared today he will be a great president if he can keep deaths down to 100,000, which is Dr. Fauci’s lowest estimate given current measures for social isolation.]