Yesterday, I listened to a Flip the West webinar with Ben Tulchin, a pollster who was working for Bernie and who is now concentrating on Senate races. He not only discussed polls (not much new there: AZ, CO, ME, and NC as the Dems’ Big Four, anticipating a loss in AL, where Jones is 10 behind), but also who has enough money and who doesn’t.

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• The Sister District research project on different ways of reaching voters is here. We had some discussion about the difference between what is most effective, versus what’s more or less comfortable.
• Judy went through one recent phone session without a single valid response.
• The Vote Forward letters appear to be one effective technique. We can help with printing and envelopes. Since the letters are not going out until October, this is a slow but steady operation. The box on our porch has postcards in packets of 25.
• Bruce reported that the California Indivisible calls are informative, and the national calls less so. He’s been particularly impressed with the Movement Voter Project, which supports a number of organizations with different emphases, some technically non-partisan. We’ll be linking our ActBlue donation page to them.
• EBAA’s three races in Michigan all overlap Haley Stevens’s CD. EBAA is also going in on a North Carolina Assembly race that became more difficult as a result of redistricting.
• As my pick for Chart of the Fortnight, I chose the CDC on excess all-cause mortality. It’s the instant visual representation of the right-wing suggestion that we’ve just relabeled the flu.

• These two weeks we want to grow our membership. In the virus era, there is no reason to restrict ourselves to Elmwood and environs. I will make an announcement on my social media. Let me encourage you particularly to invite friends who are not in any group, who are most at risk for despondency.

Next two campaigns are for Alaska. I’m convinced that Dr. Al Gross (yes, another M.D. running) is the sleeper Senate race of the cycle. Alaska has only one House seat: we also have Alyse Galvin, who is making her second try at ousting Dean of the House Don Young. With Young, anything can happen.

For those of you who would like a complete explainer for the Flynn faux-scandal, legal blogger Marcy Wheeler has it.

There isn’t enough data yet fully to understand Christy Smith’s loss in CA–25, not until the mail ballots are finished and we see how much ground she makes up, and who voted at the last minute. She won’t, however, make up her Election Night deficit of over 11 points. (I’d guess when it’s all over, she loses by 4 to 6.)

Preliminary indications are that (1) Democratic falloff from 2018 was more then Republican, (2) fewer Republican defections and worse showing among non-party independents. (1) we can fix in November. (2) is a consequence of a somewhat stronger Republican candidate—Latino, veteran, no previous record of Trump fluffing—that will be the same in November. I’ve read that Garcia’s TV ads were both more widely played and better than Smith’s, and that the DCCC decided to hold its fire in this district for the general election.

Hey DCCC: Let’s not make this a trend.

UPDATE [May 15]: Smith does not appear to be narrowing the gap in any meaningful way. Current totals (with no indication how many ballots are left) have her about 14½ points behind in Ventura County, which is a small part of the district, and a little over 8 behind in LA County. That is, the result is (even) worse than it first appeared to be. I hope the Smith campaign is reviewing its messaging. They didn’t lack for virtual canvassers.

UPDATE [June 7]: Final result seems to be loss by 9.8.

In the past two days I have read three outstanding essays on the role of race—which is always present in American politics, especially when we pretend it isn’t—in the conservative response to COVID–19.

Ibram X. Kendi, in The Atlantic

Adam Serwer, also in The Atlantic

Jamelle Bouie, in the NY Times

Initial ballot counts for the CA–25 special election (Christy Smith vs Mike Garcia, a Hispanic Republican veteran) are not favorable. The ballots received so far have many more R than D voters. The voting deadline is postmarked Tuesday. (There are also a small number of in-person polling places and drop boxes, but no one seems to expect significant voting in person. All voters were mailed an absentee ballot.)

In lieu of our regular meeting, Naomi and I have signed up to do GOTV phone banking. We do not want to take the morale hit that would come from letting Team MAGA-Drink-Bleach flip this district.

Swing Left virtual phone bank link.

You should sign up, if you can join us, 24 hours in advance. The event runs 2:30 to 5:00, and if people are interested,, at 5:00 we can have our own brief meeting to discuss it.

I wrote a longer review of Hiding in Plain Sight at Daily Kos. Someone was nice enough to place it in the Community Spotlight.

A long list of potential actions from Swing Left (and the formatting did not copy well).

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