Zoom Link:

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/83328098130?pwd=OXlDOEtCaExhYnRZcDNQMFVPa1A3dz09

Action link 1: Join us for a texting lesson Saturday (tomorrow) at 3:00. Sign up here: https://www.openprogress.com/texting-schedule

Action link 2: Educate yourself with a Webinar by a prominent pollster

https://www.flipthewest.com/bentulchinwebinar

AGENDA:

1. Effective action: Naomi will report on Sister District’s recent summary of its study comparing various forms of political action.
2. Judy will update us on her texting adventures and lessons learned.
3. Bruce will update us on Indivisible national/state.
4. We have gathered materials to support a big push in Vote Forward letters. We’ll review how to get this moving.
5. We’ll launch our action thermometers and discuss our current fundraising campaign with a short report from Andy on wise use of your $$.

Next two campaigns are for Alaska. I’m convinced that Dr. Al Gross (yes, another M.D. running) is the sleeper Senate race of the cycle. Alaska has only one House seat: we also have Alyse Galvin, who is making her second try at ousting Dean of the House Don Young. With Young, anything can happen.

For those of you who would like a complete explainer for the Flynn faux-scandal, legal blogger Marcy Wheeler has it.

There isn’t enough data yet fully to understand Christy Smith’s loss in CA–25, not until the mail ballots are finished and we see how much ground she makes up, and who voted at the last minute. She won’t, however, make up her Election Night deficit of over 11 points. (I’d guess when it’s all over, she loses by 4 to 6.)

Preliminary indications are that (1) Democratic falloff from 2018 was more then Republican, (2) fewer Republican defections and worse showing among non-party independents. (1) we can fix in November. (2) is a consequence of a somewhat stronger Republican candidate—Latino, veteran, no previous record of Trump fluffing—that will be the same in November. I’ve read that Garcia’s TV ads were both more widely played and better than Smith’s, and that the DCCC decided to hold its fire in this district for the general election.

Hey DCCC: Let’s not make this a trend.

UPDATE [May 15]: Smith does not appear to be narrowing the gap in any meaningful way. Current totals (with no indication how many ballots are left) have her about 14½ points behind in Ventura County, which is a small part of the district, and a little over 8 behind in LA County. That is, the result is (even) worse than it first appeared to be. I hope the Smith campaign is reviewing its messaging. They didn’t lack for virtual canvassers.

UPDATE [June 7]: Final result seems to be loss by 9.8.

Join Zoom Meeting
Meeting ID: 818 1454 0379
Password: 081536

This is it. What we are doing today is what we are going to do in the future. Given that, how do we organize and map our efforts?

1. Postcards. We have 1000 postcards in our living room. Distribution ideas. Andy’s comments on the most important campaigns.
2. Texting. Did Committoflip help? What else can we do to get those who want to text, texting?
3. Phone calling. The psychology of letting it ring. How did today go and who wants more for the future?
4. Letter writing (including Indivisible’s support). Should we have a group goal?
5. Fundraising. Time to shift our website campaign. What next?

I made some calls today! It felt great. Please join us on the phone tomorrow

Swing Left virtual phone bank link.

Then at 5:00 for a short meeting to bring everyone up to date on postcards, calls, texting and politics in general.

Join Zoom Meeting
Meeting ID: 818 1454 0379
Password: 081536

In the past two days I have read three outstanding essays on the role of race—which is always present in American politics, especially when we pretend it isn’t—in the conservative response to COVID–19.

Ibram X. Kendi, in The Atlantic

Adam Serwer, also in The Atlantic

Jamelle Bouie, in the NY Times

Initial ballot counts for the CA–25 special election (Christy Smith vs Mike Garcia, a Hispanic Republican veteran) are not favorable. The ballots received so far have many more R than D voters. The voting deadline is postmarked Tuesday. (There are also a small number of in-person polling places and drop boxes, but no one seems to expect significant voting in person. All voters were mailed an absentee ballot.)

In lieu of our regular meeting, Naomi and I have signed up to do GOTV phone banking. We do not want to take the morale hit that would come from letting Team MAGA-Drink-Bleach flip this district.

Swing Left virtual phone bank link.

You should sign up, if you can join us, 24 hours in advance. The event runs 2:30 to 5:00, and if people are interested,, at 5:00 we can have our own brief meeting to discuss it.

I wanted to let everyone know that we have been in touch with Jeff who we have not seen in a while and we learned that his wife Noemi died earlier this year. Here is a link to the article about her in Berkeleyside and here is his address for anyone who wants to write a note: Jeff Grund, 2706 Ashby #2, Berkeley 94705.