1. Please note that Andy changed our gathering time Tuesday to 6:00 pm–bring dinner or drinks or both. Here is the link: Join Zoom Meeting
2. Check out our final $$ total. Amazing!
3. Just got off a phone bank to Florida–helped a 91 year-old Biden voter figure out that what she thought was a mail-in ballot is really a request for a ballot and she can vote early today and tomorrow in her county. Lots of confused voters out there. Hope everyone is jumping in where they can and staying sane.

This map, from Daily Kos, always holds a certain fascination for me. Why, for example, is Iowa the state with the latest closing time (9:00 pm CT)? I know why Indiana and Kentucky are the earliest (6:00 pm local time); they don’t want too many voters.

Reviewing this, I am moving the start of the Indivisible Elmwood wrap-up to Tuesday 11/3, 6:00 pm PT, because I expect Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina numbers to be coming in by then, and good showings there for Democrats will put the election out of reach for Team Pinochet right from the start.

Join Zoom Meeting

I promised predictions. I am still mulling over the details, but at this point our GOTV efforts are about running up the score.

Biden will win. A minimum—I haven’t decided about toss-ups—is Clinton plus MI, WI, PA, FL, AZ, and NE-02. (No comment yet on IA, NC, GA.) Popular vote by at least 7. The margins in WI and PA will exceed the number that Barrett and Boofanaugh dare throw out.

We will win the Senate, at least 51.

We will extend our control in the House, picking up at least four in Texas alone while losing at most three.

Kos is right (this happens often): instead of panicking and saying everyone has to campaign in terror as if we are 10 points down, we campaign with joy and confidence that we are in the right, that a majority of the country agrees, and with more work we can do even better.

1. We passed $45,000. Andy updated the thermometer with state races since so many of the Senate and House races are flush. These State races are focused on three states where Dems can flip state houses. If your friends are upset about today’s Supreme Court confirmation, send them the link to chip in. As the ruling from the Supreme Court today on voting demonstrates, we’ll need Dems at every level of government.
2. People gave reports on their activities. Lots of enthusiasm about Flip the West for their easy-to-use phone banking and texting platforms. If anyone wants help getting active on the final weekend, let us know and we’ll help you find a phone bank buddy. Phone banking is the most needed activity from now on.
3. Bruce gave out a link with State Strong California Indivisible info on Protect The Vote. Here it is again. Definitely worth looking at. If things go south we’ll meet Wednesday Nov 5th at 5:00 at our usual protest location. Please bring extra masks.
4. We will gather on election eve, Nov 3rd at 7:00 pm for Andy’s analysis of the unfolding vote counting and general discussion. We’ll post a Zoom link before the event. Have wine handy.
5. Gideon read Henry V’s St. Crispin’s Day speech since amazingly Sunday was the 605th anniversary of the event. For any who missed it, private recitations can be arranged.
6. THAT WAS OUR LAST REGULARLY SCHEDULED MEETING. Many thanks to those who attended, to those who have been with us at previous meetings and those who follow us via our website. As the Bard says,”This story ( of Elmwood Indivisible) shall the good man (and woman) teach his son (and daughter).

The Democratic Senate candidates have all the money they need. Even professionals raising money for them say this.

Apparently, nearly all the Democratic House candidates have all the money they need. (By the way, the marvelous Alexandria Ocasio Cortez pointed out that Republican spite-giving has raised almost $10 million for her opponent, who will lose by 20, 30, maybe 50 points.)

So, Democratic institutions are looking further down the ballot, into the State Legislatures. I’ve received slates from Give Smart, Future is Female, and Daily Kos. Give Smart is only Wisconsin; the others are mostly North Carolina, Arizona, and Texas. Swing Left also has a page for North Carolina.

Rather than copy their slates, I have put the NC, TX, and AZ umbrella state organizations on our ActBlue page, along with a few non-legislative down ballot candidates. Of course, you can also donate through the links above and through the national DLCC.

Link for the Zoom meeting, October 25

Andrew Lazarus is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Topic: Indivisible Elmwood
Time: Oct 25, 2020 04:30 PM Pacific Time (US and Canada)

Join Zoom Meeting

Meeting ID: 833 1933 9353
Passcode: 342557
One tap mobile
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I am not going to make changes to our thermometer, but on a morning call today, J Street’s race-watcher, who follows everything even more closely than I do, mentioned five tossup House races with Blue momentum.

Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (IL-13), Hillary Scholten (MI-03), Dan Feehan (MN-01), Cameron Webb (VA-05) [use our thermometer], and Kathleen Williams (MT-AL).

We have had Scholten, Williams, and Webb up at our ActBlue at various times. Feehan is a 2018 rematch and a win would balance a likely loss in the Iron Range, MN-07, where long-time Conservadem Colin Peterson is running for re-election in a district Trump won by over 20.

J Street also mentioned what could be this cycle’s negative blind-side result: Peter DeFazio in OR-04 is in trouble. (Ratings agencies moved him from Solid to Lean D, and his internal polling is worse.) DeFazio is a true progressive. His opponent, Alex Skarlatos, is the 2020 version of Dan Crenshaw: a young military vet of unquestioned personal courage and undeniable charisma, who doesn’t seem to know much about policy and is likely to learn from the absolute worst people.

I’ve put up one more Texas race: Mike Siegel in TX–10, who is repeating his 2018 challenge to Michael McCaul. He lost by 4 in 2018, without getting much attention. He’s a Bernie liberal.

We may still be a cycle or two early, but Texas is where we can pick up significant numbers of seats. There just aren’t many Republicans in California to toss out any more. Texas CDs 3, 10, 21, 22, 23, 24 are all highly competitive (Lean R or better). TX–02, already up, is one of several that can flip on a good night.

If you can, there are many state legislature races looking for small amounts of money. Look for lists from Daily Kos or Democratic Party sources.

Andy and I drove to the burbs and greatly enjoyed mailing all the letters there. What a great group effort.

Also, as always, our thermometer is on the rise. Now nearing $45,000.

Thanks to everyone for all the work going on and we look forward to seeing everyone next weekend. Meanwhile, if you need help getting active, please let us know.

In a Zoom debate between the Iowa Senate candidates, Dem Theresa Greenfield knew the going price of corn to the penny. Republican incumbent Ernst? Too much time hanging with the DC lobbyists: she was nowhere close on the price of a bushel of soybeans.

I’m told it’s a big deal.

Wow. Democrat @GreenfieldIowa was asked what a bushel of corn costs. She nailed it down to the PENNY. When Republican @joniernst was asked the cost of soybeans, well… not so much. pic.twitter.com/CQ534jxEjV

— Brian Tyler Cohen (@briantylercohen) October 16, 2020

 Her performance in the Judiciary Committee hearings was as weak as the worst predictions, ending with a hug of Lindsey Graham. I’m not even sure she realizes she is supposed to vote No. That fax number? (202)228-3954 [DC Office]

I had a dream I received the following letter.

Dear Andrew,
It’s too bad about Roe v. Wade being overturned. The Republicans packed the Supreme Court, even when I asked them nicely not to. The best way to show them you won’t stand for this is to make a large donation to my 2024 re-election campaign. Yours, Senator Feinstein.