At our meeting tomorrow we will raise a glass (or two) to the Recall Defeat (Hurrah!!!) and turn to Virginia. Winning is lots of fun — it is time to get into high gear for Virginia so we win there as well. At our meeting this weekend (Sunday Sept 19 4:00-5:00) Andy will give his analysis of the Recall vote, we’ll have updates on other projects and we’ll organize the push for Virginia (our thermometer, letters and the hundreds of postcards we have ready to be filled out). Spirits liquid and otherwise provided.

Good job. Although in the end, I don’t think our postcards were the difference between winning and losing. The Republicans got stomped beyond my most optimistic prediction. (Margin is 27 at the moment.)

I want to point out three data points that are not getting the attention they warrant.

First, the recall is losing in Orange County by 6 (it was over 10 in the early mail ballots). In 2018, the big Democratic year where we flipped the OC Congressional seats with several upsets, Newsom won Orange County by 0.4. I am excited about our prospects to re-take some of the seats that the GOP took back in 2020.

The Republicans have no one to run against Newsom in 2022. Our second datum is 44%, Larry Elder’s share of the replacement vote. He crushed his pre-election polling and humiliated real politicians like Kevin Faulconer and John Cox. Elder is doubtless salivating over the new, even more lucrative, media earnings that will be bestowed on the leading Black White Supremacist. But a great many people didn’t make any choice for the replacement. Whether it’s Elder against Newsom in 2022 or another Trump follower, it’s clear the GOP base is all in on promoting someone who will capture at most one-third of the statewide vote.

The LA Times has spared me the effort of doing the following chart myself. Basically, the Recall Map by County is the same as the COVID–19 Map by County.

As an alternate way of seeing the data, maps from the NY Times.

[N.B.: Yes, Biden won Orange County by even more than the recall, while the Dems lost House seats there. But that was before the full identification of state and local Republicans with Trump.]

I gave a cautiously optimistic update on the California Recall, and expressed some annoyance at the constant requests for money from Democrats in tight campaigns who are perfectly well funded but ascribe some totemic meaning to contributions that will somehow reduce the opponents’ votes.

Bruce provided more useful information. The Courage California ‘No To The Recall’ page for texting and other volunteer activities. PDF (from a Slack conversation) on how to help our Indivisible colleagues in Texistan.

The implications of bringing abortion to center stage for Republicans with their already-waning share of the educated and suburban vote are probably, in a cynical way, favorable for Democrats.

We discussed locations for anti-recall flyering. We have some left, and also large posters. After the recall our attention turns to Virginia. (Not a place the Republicans want to run on opposition to Roe.) We have reprinted the postcards with the “Paid for by” disclaimer pre-printed, and on paper that should be easier to write on. For those who are using the original batch, I have lots of “Paid for by” stickers if you need them.

In memory of 9/11 and in honor of one of the century’s first real heroes, Rick Rescorla, here’s Charlotte Church (at age 13½) singing Men of Harlech.

As usual.

Long story, we put a trailer hitch on our car for a bike rack and we ended up with two. Model is Draw-Tite 1¼-inch. We’ll give it to the first person to donate $75 through our ActBlue page.

Installation not included.

Virginia: Recent polls show the top of the ticket Democrats 6 to 8 points ahead, consistent with the results of recent cycles. I ordered more postcards without the slick (address side) front.

California: Extensive discussion of stop-the-recall strategy. Also, whether to vote for a replacement on Part Two of the ballot. No consensus.

We have been having trouble finding addresses for postcard writing. I received 25 addresses to be targeted in Spanish from Activate America (formerly Flip the West). I also asked for 100 regular (English), didn’t yet receive. However, since yesterday’s meeting, Tony the Democrat has added the Newsom Recall. (It’s still not on his postcardstovoters website. Keeping websites up to date is hard.)

Tony’s instructions to get No on Recall addresses:

• Text HELLO to (484) 275-2229
• CLICK HERE for SLACK to message Abby on Slack Messenger
• CLICK HERE for EMAIL to Abby or write to Request@AbbyAddresses.org and she will reply automatically

Postcard postage goes up to 40¢ on the 30th, but stamps that just say “Postcard”, like the barns and the fish, remain valid for the full value, whatever it is.

The official Democratic campaign has gone up on the air, but we notice an absence of yard signs. Indivisible Northridge has recall swag, including yard signs, here. You can always make your own, too! Thanks to Bruce for the link.

The major decision from the meeting is that Indivisible Elmwood is going on a Field Trip to Get Out the No Vote. Join us at Fruitvale Bart on Sunday, August 29, 2:00pm to 4:00pm. We will have flyers, a blown-up ballot showing how to vote No, and a good time. There is parking at the station if you want to drive.

I wanted to put an Apple Calendar file here, but WordPress doesn’t support it. Remember, you can subscribe to the Indivisible Elmwood calendar with this webcal link. Your calendar program, Apple or otherwise, should know what to do with it.

At the usual place.

The California Recall election has finally made it onto the radar. We received our ballots, and will not waste any time in returning them. Organizations are gearing up to insure a No vote.

Indivisible groups around California are taking action to get out the NO vote in the recall election, following polls showing a real risk of Newsom falling below the 50+% vote he needs  to stay in office.   Newsom has accomplished a lot as governor, and whatever his shortcomings, the alternatives on the GOP side are scary: a Trump-supported right-winger like Larry Elder could replace him with as little as 20% of the vote!  Your ballot and the ballot of everyone you know saying “NO” TO RECALL on question 1 will be critical.

Other Actions to Support Governor Newsom & Stop the Recall:

Part 1: Actions

Write postcards, send text messages, or phone bank with other Indivisible groups. Northridge Indivisible has a website with extensive resources and links to action centers at https://www.trnindivisible.org/noontherecall/.  Indivisible SF has voting information and links at their site: https://indivisiblesf.org/vote

Check in with the CA Democratic Party–CADEM for phone banking and canvassing opportunities. New actions are being added every day.  https://docs.google.com/document/d/1utBAR291y6Iuv2Oz4DkGSWWjD0-32_qgEdDb80Z_K1Q/edit

Use your social media to show your support with these ready -made social media posts for Facebook and Twitter. bit.ly/norecallsocial

If you are a Spanish speaker or know someone that is a Spanish speaker you are in high demand!  Sign up here to textbank with Voto Latino!

Part 2: Voting Options:

Return your ballot by mail. It must be postmarked no later than September 14 and received no later than 7 days following Election Day. Complete the ballot using a blue or black pen. No postage is required. Sign and date the envelope. Make sure your group numbers (on the ballot and on the envelope) match. If they do not call 800-815-2666 select option 2.

Drop Box –  to locate a drop box closest to you, go to https://www.acgov.org/rovapps/maps/ballotdropbox_map.htm

Bring your ballot to an early polling location or vote early in person.

Vote in person on Election Day or turn your ballot in at your polling place.

We will resume on August 22.

Also: postage rates are going up August 29. The new rates are 58¢ for a letter and 40¢ for a postcard. Remember, stamps denominated “Forever” are always good for a letter and those denominated “Postcard” are always good for a card, so there is no need for add-on stamps. You can stock up now at the lower price! (Reminder: I have never had a problem with stamps sold out at the Orinda Post Office.) Did anyone else notice that international postcards are now the same price as international letters ($1.20 now, $1.30 after increase)? Seems like a bad blow to the postcard industry.

Another reason our post office is strapped is that our rates are significantly lower than other industrialized countries’. A second-class letter in the UK is £0.66 (=92¢) and first-class in Canada is C$0.92 (=74¢).