As usual.

Long story, we put a trailer hitch on our car for a bike rack and we ended up with two. Model is Draw-Tite 1¼-inch. We’ll give it to the first person to donate $75 through our ActBlue page.

Installation not included.

Virginia: Recent polls show the top of the ticket Democrats 6 to 8 points ahead, consistent with the results of recent cycles. I ordered more postcards without the slick (address side) front.

California: Extensive discussion of stop-the-recall strategy. Also, whether to vote for a replacement on Part Two of the ballot. No consensus.

We have been having trouble finding addresses for postcard writing. I received 25 addresses to be targeted in Spanish from Activate America (formerly Flip the West). I also asked for 100 regular (English), didn’t yet receive. However, since yesterday’s meeting, Tony the Democrat has added the Newsom Recall. (It’s still not on his postcardstovoters website. Keeping websites up to date is hard.)

Tony’s instructions to get No on Recall addresses:

• Text HELLO to (484) 275-2229
• CLICK HERE for SLACK to message Abby on Slack Messenger
• CLICK HERE for EMAIL to Abby or write to Request@AbbyAddresses.org and she will reply automatically

Postcard postage goes up to 40¢ on the 30th, but stamps that just say “Postcard”, like the barns and the fish, remain valid for the full value, whatever it is.

The official Democratic campaign has gone up on the air, but we notice an absence of yard signs. Indivisible Northridge has recall swag, including yard signs, here. You can always make your own, too! Thanks to Bruce for the link.

The major decision from the meeting is that Indivisible Elmwood is going on a Field Trip to Get Out the No Vote. Join us at Fruitvale Bart on Sunday, August 29, 2:00pm to 4:00pm. We will have flyers, a blown-up ballot showing how to vote No, and a good time. There is parking at the station if you want to drive.

I wanted to put an Apple Calendar file here, but WordPress doesn’t support it. Remember, you can subscribe to the Indivisible Elmwood calendar with this webcal link. Your calendar program, Apple or otherwise, should know what to do with it.

At the usual place.

The California Recall election has finally made it onto the radar. We received our ballots, and will not waste any time in returning them. Organizations are gearing up to insure a No vote.

Indivisible groups around California are taking action to get out the NO vote in the recall election, following polls showing a real risk of Newsom falling below the 50+% vote he needs  to stay in office.   Newsom has accomplished a lot as governor, and whatever his shortcomings, the alternatives on the GOP side are scary: a Trump-supported right-winger like Larry Elder could replace him with as little as 20% of the vote!  Your ballot and the ballot of everyone you know saying “NO” TO RECALL on question 1 will be critical.

Other Actions to Support Governor Newsom & Stop the Recall:

Part 1: Actions

Write postcards, send text messages, or phone bank with other Indivisible groups. Northridge Indivisible has a website with extensive resources and links to action centers at https://www.trnindivisible.org/noontherecall/.  Indivisible SF has voting information and links at their site: https://indivisiblesf.org/vote

Check in with the CA Democratic Party–CADEM for phone banking and canvassing opportunities. New actions are being added every day.  https://docs.google.com/document/d/1utBAR291y6Iuv2Oz4DkGSWWjD0-32_qgEdDb80Z_K1Q/edit

Use your social media to show your support with these ready -made social media posts for Facebook and Twitter. bit.ly/norecallsocial

If you are a Spanish speaker or know someone that is a Spanish speaker you are in high demand!  Sign up here to textbank with Voto Latino!

Part 2: Voting Options:

Return your ballot by mail. It must be postmarked no later than September 14 and received no later than 7 days following Election Day. Complete the ballot using a blue or black pen. No postage is required. Sign and date the envelope. Make sure your group numbers (on the ballot and on the envelope) match. If they do not call 800-815-2666 select option 2.

Drop Box –  to locate a drop box closest to you, go to https://www.acgov.org/rovapps/maps/ballotdropbox_map.htm

Bring your ballot to an early polling location or vote early in person.

Vote in person on Election Day or turn your ballot in at your polling place.

We will resume on August 22.

Also: postage rates are going up August 29. The new rates are 58¢ for a letter and 40¢ for a postcard. Remember, stamps denominated “Forever” are always good for a letter and those denominated “Postcard” are always good for a card, so there is no need for add-on stamps. You can stock up now at the lower price! (Reminder: I have never had a problem with stamps sold out at the Orinda Post Office.) Did anyone else notice that international postcards are now the same price as international letters ($1.20 now, $1.30 after increase)? Seems like a bad blow to the postcard industry.

Another reason our post office is strapped is that our rates are significantly lower than other industrialized countries’. A second-class letter in the UK is £0.66 (=92¢) and first-class in Canada is C$0.92 (=74¢).

The Activate America webinar Tuesday reported on a specific study of postcarding that they conducted in two districts in NV.  The webinar was recorded and will be available if anyone wants to dig into the statistical weeds.  They also promised to send out a copy of the study and of the slide show synopsis that they presented on Tuesday.  I found the event and the study modestly interesting, but less encouraging than did the researchers and the org leaders.

The study attempted to measure whether receiving a postcard that told Democratic and Independent voters in two districts that Senator Catherine Cortez Masto and their Congressional Representative had supported the covid relief stimulus payment bill, while not one Republican had voted for it, had a positive effect on the voters’ favorability rating of Cortez Masto and their Rep.

The take away was that there was a statistically significant rise (at .05 level) in Cortez Masto’s favorability rating compared with a control group that did not receive the postcard. However, there was no rise in favorability for the congressional reps.  The presenter’s interpretation was that postcards work best on better known candidates, but they should be part of a broad, multi-faceted GOTV campaign.

Activate America also announced that they are launching a study in Wisconsin that will try to compare efficacy of postcards vs texting.  I believe they said that they will be testing the efficacy of negative messaging (against Ron Johnson) in that study.

Finally they reported that they are currently launching numerous voter registration campaigns (some in Virginia) including postcards, phone banks, and instagram Direct Messaging.

I pointed people towards work by sociologist Brooke Harrington on how to reach people who have fallen for conspiracy theories. What’s most effective is finding people who were similarly conned, to help the marks cope with loss of face (“social death”). Sending facts doesn’t help; at some level the mark knows he has been conned and does not plan to admit it.

See separate post for upcoming Activate America (=Flip the West) event.

We intend to raise $5000 for Virginia Assembly candidates. Send the link to our ActBlue page to your friends.

We have fresh Virginia postcards, featuring Bruce’s design. We also have another 100 Dr. Ben Moses (HD-59) addresses. Both will be available in packs of 25 on our porch.

N.B. The Virginia postcards are to be mailed mid-September, to coincide with the start of early voting, which you can reference in the text. Virginia requires a disclaimer “Paid for by [Someone], not authorized by any candidate” on each card. I have printed small sticky labels with my name that you can use, which will be with the cards. Please return the cards to us after you write them, and we will stamp them. That keeps everything straight for the campaign finance rules.

I have slightly modified my sample postcard for Ben Moses in accordance with the campaign instructions, but as usual they wanted to cram in more than anyone will look at.

This election we have a chance to make Dr. Ben Moses a Delegate in District 59. He’s an Army vet, ICU doctor, and wants to invest in Rural Virginia and Health Care for All. Early voting has started. Vote by November 2 for Dr. Moses and the Democratic ticket.

Sample postcard

Vote Forward is also conducting a letter campaign for Virginia. They claim 325 thousand written already!

Bill Marthinsen is your contact if you want to canvass in Virginia. Note that because of the expanded (excessive?) Early Voting window, campaigns are not sure when the optimal canvass campaign would be. So, no dates yet.

In our next two meetings we will discuss the Newsom recall attempt, because we don’t want any accidents.

You, too, can post to this site. If stuck, ask me.

It’s happening Tuesday, July 27^th at 12:00 Noon Pacific. You can RSVP HERE.

Earlier this year, Activate America (formerly Flip the West) partnered with Movement Labs to study the efficacy of postcarding as a tool to improve the way voters see their Democratic representatives. The results are in and we invite you to join us to hear Professor Shana Charles and our Data Director Andre Charles share the findings.

Other studies have shown postcards to be an effective tool for voter registration and voter turnout, but do they actually change hearts and minds? You’ll want to tune in to find out.