Senate bang for buck

I am re-pasting this with updates (the updates in ranking are shaded yellow). Nothing significant has changed, except that the Republicans declined to nominate nutcase Kris Kobach in Kansas. I am pleasantly surprised to see that the first post-primary polls show it is still a one or two point race, against us at the moment.

EDIT 2020-09-22: I have taken this chart down, because there is a revised version here.

PhoneBanks by EBAA Interns

Hello, the East Bay Activist Alliance is running a number of weekly phonebanks that are run by their interns (my charges). We had one of our members join a phonebank on Sunday, 8/9 at 1:00 pm. Hurray, Marilyn!!! She did great!

They repeat every week, same day, same time. You can find the links on the EBAA website, http://www.eastbayactivistalliance.org, under TakeAction (link at top of page), Phonebanking (link in menu for TakeAction), Calendar (link at bottom of Phonebanking page).

Here is the overall schedule with links to all that are coming up this week.

Kuppa, MI-41, Saturdays
11:00-1:00 https://actionnetwork.org/events/ebaa-phonebank-for-padma-kuppa-in-mi-41-with-aaron-8152020

Pulver, MI-39, Sundays
1:00-3:00 https://actionnetwork.org/events/ebaa-virtual-phonebank-michigan-sundays-with-scott-miller-81620
11:00-1:00 https://actionnetwork.org/events/ebaa-phonebank-for-julia-pulver-in-mi-39-with-max-8162020

Hardy, NC-43, Saturdays
11:00-1:00 https://actionnetwork.org/events/ebaa-phonebanking-for-north-carolina-81520

Evans, AZ-6, Wednesdays
4:00-7:00 https://actionnetwork.org/events/winning-wednesdays-ebaa-phonebanking-texting-and-postcarding-via-zoom-on-81220

O’Neil, MI-104, Saturdays
11:00-1:00 https://actionnetwork.org/events/ebaa-phonebank-for-dan-oneil-with-sam-8152020

Iowa polling update

Monmouth has a new poll of all the Iowa House races released today. We were correct to concentrate on Rita Hart. She is 3 behind, based, I surmise, on inferior name recognition compared to her opponent, who has lost the last three elections for this seat (but to Dave Loebsack, who is retiring).

Notwithstanding their frequent requests for money, Democratic incumbents Abby Finkenauer and Cindy Axne are comfortably ahead.

With vicious bigot Steve King denied renomination in the Republican primary, the fourth Iowa CD is no longer competitive. Garden-variety Republican Randy Feenstra is almost 20 ahead.

Quick Update

1. Andy is working on a chart of our group goals. Thanks to those of you who emailed your goals to me–if you want yours included, email me by the weekend when Andy will post his new handy-dandy visual aid of just how ambitious we all are. Goals can include how many postcards you plan to write, how many letters, how many texts or phone calls or specific campaigns or outreach activities you want to be involved in.

2. I have ten weather-proof Black Lives Matter signs for anyone in our group who wants one. Just drop me an email.

3. Our fund-raising is off to a great start! We blew past $2,500 and are now heading to $5,000.

4. Need help with moving forward with letters, postcards, texts? Drop me an email and I’ll get you a buddy or help you myself.

Minutes from August 2 meeting

I started off with a review of what we need to worry about, and what we don’t.

What to worry about
What to worry about

Bruce talked about phone calls and texting, encouraging us to find a local or regional campaign that suits us. For example, just calling for Biden may not work for you.

Naomi: everyone should make a 100–day plan. Here are some resources.

Bill will be hosting a series of phone banks to Michigan on weekends. Contact him for information.

Quick Update

A full set of minutes from our meeting today will be posted tomorrow (thanks to everyone for a great meeting!). Remember to send me an email (when you are ready) with your 100 Days Goals. How many postcards, letters, texts and phone calls will you try to make before election day? Andy will set up a goal chart which is an anonymous total so everyone gets credit for everything we do!

Meanwhile I want to respond to Judy’s questions about our donation strategies. Please take from this what is useful to you and discard the rest.

For the lowest tier on local state and house races, $100 is fabulous and less is very, very helpful. For the next tier, we will give a big chunk to our two main House races (Cox and Hart) since their expenses are on a different scale. In addition, smaller donations to (hard to turn them down when they call):
Galvin (Alaska) (she plays bridge!)

Mucarsel-Powell (FL)
Brzozowski (IL)
Kunkel (WV) (slightly less hopeless than Swearingen)
Swearingen (WV) (hopeless but a left candidate)
Vazquez (FL)
Imam (TX) (software engineer so Andy had to donate)
Torres-Small (NM) (this is important race)
Lombard (KS)
Driskell (MI)
Hoadley (MI)
Tipernini (AZ) (out of nostalgia)
Stevens (MI)
Dirksen Londrigan (IL)
Hicks (KY)
Goroff (NY)

(early in the cycle we gave small donations to Underwood and Ortiz-Jones but they are well-funded now, same with Harder)

Senate: Main donations to our candidates Gross and Ossoff, token donations to Jordan in Idaho since she is a Native American, Bullock, Greenfield and Bollier.

Zoom link for Aug 2

Time: Aug 2, 2020 04:30 PM Pacific Time (US and Canada)

Join Zoom Meeting

Meeting ID: 839 4742 1997

Passcode: 231331

One tap mobile

+13462487799,,83947421997#,,,,,,0#,,231331# US (Houston)

+16699006833,,83947421997#,,,,,,0#,,231331# US (San Jose)

Dial by your location

        +1 346 248 7799 US (Houston)

        +1 669 900 6833 US (San Jose)

        +1 929 205 6099 US (New York)

        +1 253 215 8782 US (Tacoma)

        +1 301 715 8592 US (Germantown)

        +1 312 626 6799 US (Chicago)

Meeting ID: 839 4742 1997

Passcode: 231331

Find your local number: https://us02web.zoom.us/u/kekB7ctRFo

A look at Senate Bang for Buck

Judy Stacey was nice enough to get me a speaking slot to the Wellstone Democratic Club. My points were familiar to Indivisible Elmwood participants.

  • Don’t give money out of spite (McGrath in KY, probably Gideon in ME).
  • Don’t give money to candidates who already have all they can use (Kelly in AZ, Jones in AL).
  • Look for Democratic candidates for whom money can truly make the difference between winning and losing (Gross in AK, Ossoff in GA)

I prepared a spreadsheet that also showed how much more (or less) our candidates have compared to the opponent.

EDIT: A full-size version of this spreadsheet is here, and of our slate, here.

Bang for Buck spreadsheet