We think it is best to wait until we can meet again in person, hopefully in two weeks. Meanwhile, lots to do.

We are more than half-way to our fund-raising goal (moved past $5,000 and on to $10,000. Andy and I have not added all of our matching funds yet–we hope to use them to finish off the campaign. Small cards with the QR code for our site can be found in the postcard box on our porch. Pass them out, send around the link and we’ll reach our goal.

Our new postcards came with the slogan we picked at the last meeting. They join other designs on our front porch in packs of 25.

Activate America has some good postcards campaigns now, including one to encourage Wisconsin Dems to vote by mail.

Andy contributes: I had the opportunity to meet virtually with Kermit Jones. He’s a good candidate. Wish he had a more favorable district. Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones is now running for that seat, as a second Republican candidate. He and Assembly member Kevin Kiley, who announced earlier, are both vicious human beings and terrible on policy; let’s hope their fight costs them and enough voters stay home in November.

Next meeting Sunday 2/13.

I promised to supply this, then forgot. Her SF office fax is (415) 393-0710.

As an addendum to the CA discussion, I have heard a rumor that Jerry McNerney will retire, and Harder will run for that seat instead, with an incumbent D member of the Assembly trying to move up.

As discussed at the 6/20 meeting, we have some new groups to support.

The graphical thermometer link has been broken by software revisions. Go to our site to donate.

In view of omicron, although we will be here, we are also offering a Zoom link to the meeting, and many of you have expressed interest in attending that way.

Email Naomi for the link.

[OOPS: earlier version said 4:30. It’s 4:00!]

Just as the Democratic leadership looks ready to give up, an article on how a more confrontational and effective party might just salvage the situation.

& Insurrection Anniversary

There are a number of commemorative events for Thursday. There’s (some) evidence that Merrick Garland remembers what happened, although he hasn’t yet accomplished much. Neither, honestly, has the House 1/6 Committee, beyond rehabilitating the Cheney Family reputation, something I would not have thought possible. Maybe the various contempt trials and other belated indictments will happen before the election. Maybe not.

Indivisible Marin has a virtual Hour of Action from 5:00–6:00 pm. Barbara Lee is doing a Facebook event (no FB account required) from 5:30–7:00.

Also of interest: the 2021 Sister District report.

Our first meeting will be Sunday, January 16, 4:00 pm, usual place. Bring friends. I will go over the California and national election scene, although (unlike some) I think that what happens with Covid and the economy between now and November will matter a lot. [UPDATE: In view of omicron, we will also offer a Zoom link for this week. Request the link by email.]

This Sunday, December 5, 4:00-5:00.

Enjoy a break in November and join us on Sunday Dec 5th 4:00-5:00 pm to celebrate our hard work. Cake, brownies, wine and party favors for all.

Andy will debrief with good news only and we’ll help each other gird our loins for the next round.

Bring a snack and a friend. We’ve helped each other stay focused and active — and that’s what we’ll continue to do.

Since there is little we can do about it.

Turnout appears high in the DC suburbs, a (very) good sign. So far, trending below 2017 in Charlottesville and some parts of Tidewater, not good. No word on rural turnout, which will indicate if Youngkin is getting the surplus he needs to overcome significant early vote deficit.

This map of early voting in Virginia (from non-partisan VPAP) is fascinating.

The darker blue—more votes already in—are mostly heavily Democratic areas. The yellow areas in the west and the “panhandle” are the Republicans. Early voting was huge, six times’ the last gubernatorial election in 2017. Of course, that was pre-covid, and perhaps the exigencies of 2020 cause a permanent shift in voting patterns. [EDIT: I have learned that early voting in 2017 required an excuse.]

It’s reasonable to conclude that the Democrats have banked a big lead here.

We are certainly going to see a “red shift” if these early votes are announced before the day-of votes. [EDIT: Most of these votes have been counted and will be reported before the day-of votes. However, with the day-of votes, the Republican areas, less dense, report faster. Expect a red shift; and then a smaller blue shift back.] The question is how much. I don’t know at what point we can be certain of the results, but one clue will be turnout in those Republican areas. If historical trends continue, this is about 40% of the total vote for the election. Republicans need very big turnout tomorrow: twice as many people as they got to vote early. Democrats only need about 1 for 1 (one voter tomorrow for every voter who voted early). I know which phone bank I would rather be at.