My Inbox has also lost weight during the Quarantine, dropping from 54,000 emails to under 30,000, and still shrinking. I just ran across two old emails from “Aaron (the Give Smart guy)” from January, 2019 on the Democrats’ chances to retake the Senate.
Let’s say, we are in much better shape now than it looked then. He expected Doug Jones to lose, meaning we needed four flips. Still the case.
Only Colorado seemed likely. Arizona seemed better-than-even. Maine, worse-than-even, although he correctly predicted Sara Gideon as the strongest challenger to Collins. Montana he correctly predicted as tier-one if Bullock entered after his Presidential campaign collapsed (against Conventional Wisdom, came to pass). North Carolina, Iowa, and Georgia were where the Dems needed to catch up. (We have. In none of those three did he even mention the eventual winner of the D primary.)
I’ve decided to take another look at the Kentucky Senate primary. Charles Booker is getting local endorsements while Amy McGrath keeps running the same two-issue campaign: part personal determination, part Mitch McConnell is evil. I’m not sure that plays well in the long run. McGrath can, of course, turn her $10MM warchest on her primary opponents.