Meeting Sunday 9/24, 4:00 pm

Usual place. As I mentioned before, we will have special guests by Zoom. We will, of course, put them up on a screen here, but anyone who doesn’t plan on attending in person can watch with this link. Please join this a few minutes’ early: to prevent any embarrassing Zoom-bombing, you won’t be admitted until I can approve that we know you. (The Zoom part of the meeting will start at 4:30.)

Any friends who may want to donate… the link is above.

Let me also mention that Mandela Barnes is the only 50/50-or-better Democratic Senate candidate with fundraising woes. The Republican SuperPACs are coming to rescue Ron Johnson, if they can; they are cutting their losses by conceding Arizona and redirecting the ad money.

Updated minutes from the Sept. 14 meeting

The signs have arrived.

Bruce says the CA Dem Party has young liaisons with Indivisible full of energy.

We will have a Zoom link for the Michigan session at the next meeting. Those of you unable to come to the physical meeting chez nous, will have to register to get it, so we don’t have any Zoom accidents. (I’ll post the registration link when I get it.)

By the way, on the list of who doesn’t need our money although she is great, I see that Katie Porter (CA–47) finished June with a mere $19 million on hand. Her opponent had a little over $1 million.

Hang on to optimism

Judy Stacey sent me a link to today’s Debbie Downer NY Times story. The premise: take the error in Biden’s favor in the 2020 election and apply it to the 202 Senate race. We know there were some big misses in 2020 polling and not in our favor, either.

If you do that, Warnock (GA) and Cortez Masto (NV) are barely holding on, Mandela Barnes (WI) is well behind, and Val Demings (FL) is trailing by double-digits, which I suggest is absurd.

Once you get past this terrifying tableau, they start to discuss why the premise may not hold at all. And then we come to the important part: Dems have outperformed their pre-election polls in every special election since the Dobbs decision. The big polling misses come from not understanding who is coming to vote. There’s evidence that who is coming to vote this November will be younger and more female than usual. And that’s why we should be optimistic.

Peltola wins

As I indicated Sunday, Palin needed over 60% (apparently 66%, after the first round was fully tallied) of Begich second-choice votes. In the event, Palin got just over 50%, not enough, with the remainder split about evenly between Peltola (28%) and Blank/Invalid (21%). Yet another Democratic overperformance.

UPDATE: Representative Peltola and I share a birthday 16 years apart. And it is today.

Minutes from the August 28 meeting

We welcomed two new members, Judy Gumbo and Arthur Eckstein. I’ve put in the links to make it easy for the FBI, if they are reading the Indivisible Elmwood blog. The more readers, the better.

My usual election and poll results rundown was a little brighter than earlier in the year. Our postcards pulled Pat Ryan over the finish line in NY-19. The AK-AL special election, which uses Ranked Choice, may be a big upset. The Democrat, Mary Peltola, is leading the field in first-choice votes. Sarah Palin is second. Mainstream Republican Nick Begich is third. The question is what number of Begich voters put Palin as a second choice—even a blank or invalid second choice would be good for Peltola. Every election since Dobbs has shown Democratic overperformance relative to expectations, polls, and even Biden 2020.

Our ActBlue site remains devoted to three grassroots/statehouse campaigns: North Carolina, Michigan, and Arizona. Michigan and Arizona have exceptionally bad MAGA lunatics running for statewide office.

Bruce brought in an order form for Defend Democracy yard signs. I have contacted the printer and we will finalize an order for 50, shipped to our house.

Judy Stacey (a/k/a Judy One) was a little behind on social media, so we explained “Let’s Go Brandon“, a meme developed by MAGA but now co-opted by its intended victims, and the new, far-more-potent Dark Brandon.

Dark Brandon

I was asked to see which close-race Senate candidates, if any, need money. Most of the key races, the candidate is well-resourced. The one furthest behind his opponent is Mandela Barnes, in WI-Sen. Barnes was the only one with a competitive primary (although in the end his opponents all dropped out) which somewhat depleted his resources.

And we discussed whether and where to canvass. Naomi and I keep talking about Dr. Kermit Jones (CA–03), partly because he seems like a great dark horse possibility, partly because his district is not that far away and not as scorching-hot as the Central Valley.

Oops

It had to happen eventually. I spread some fake news.

The video of Gov. DeSantis praising the FBI for its search was edited in. It’s from 2020, when investigators were searching property of one of his political enemies. For Mar-a-Lago, he’s assumed the Republican beta male stance, condemning the raid. He’s one of many GOP VP hopefuls, who clearly think Trump can catapult them into the top spot in 2028, or even earlier given his McDonalds habits.

Minutes of the 8/14 meeting

Postcards for Special Election NY-19 (Pat Ryan). The Special Election is Tuesday 8/23, same day as the regular NY Primary. So, any postcards have to go out now. Abby doesn’t have any addresses for this race at this writing, but if you have them, use them. (The same candidates are going to be running for the full term in NY-18, after significant redistricting.)

My polling update was generally positive. The Democratic brand is climbing. We are doing well in the Senate: 10-point leads for Fetterman (PA), Kelly (AZ). Down from there, 4 for Ryan (PA), 2 for Warnock (GA), only 1.6 for Cortez Masto (NV), and −0.3 for Beasley (NC).

Bruce reported on evidence that postcards and letters really work. (Fifteen emails every day, not effective.) Ann Overton gave us a list of “I vote because…” that test well.

  • I vote because some elections are decided by just a few votes.
  • I vote because the more people who vote, the more fair the election will be.

Extensive discussion on who wants to canvass and where. Rudy Salas seems to be a little ahead. Lots of people already available to do the Southern California seat flips: Smith, Rollins, Chen. Maybe work for Kermit Jones (CA-03), closer and often cooler? Bruce passes along a note that Indivisible of Sonoma County is running a virtual fundraiser for him on Monday, 8/22.

Janice has sent an email about expanding assisted dying in California.