Minutes from July 19

Well, if you were at the meeting, you will understand that I am enabling the Waiting Room. The alternative is not exposing the link in a public forum, which will complicate our long-term growth strategy. I will have someone make sure you don’t get left in Purgatory.

We made decision on current fund-raising (Al Gross, Jon Ossoff now; House and State House races later). The ActBlue page has been updated and I reset the thermometer. Let’s send it high again.

I also reviewed why I think these races are good value for money and effort.

For the special campaign of Vote Forward for August 11, which is to get Floridians to vote in their August 11 primary, either email Naomi or go to http://www.votefwd.com.

Bruce said the last national Indivisible call had “a lot of meat”—Call notes. He also plans to sign up for the virtual workshop Training to Win 2020: How We Win During a Pandemic. Also, VirusFreeVoting.org rolls the Voterizer app on Saturday, July 25th at 5:00 (PT) on social media. Theme is a Trump Retirement Party.

We are going to try to coordinate our auction items with EBAA, which has an auction of its own.

Zoom link for July 19 meeting

Topic: Indivisible Elmwood
Time: Jul 19, 2020 04:30 PM Pacific Time (US and Canada)

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Quick update

At our meeting this Sunday at 4:30 we’ll finalize our slate.

Meanwhile, I have lots of T.J. Cox addresses for anyone who wants some. Postcards on the porch. Email me for addresses.

Click here for Day of Action for T. J.

Finally, we will be swapping in a new campaign for our thermometer so let’s do a final push for our two North Carolina candidates before our meeting.

Alaska polls

Public Policy Polling (PPP) is out with polling from Alaska.

You heard it here first, but these are the sleeper races. They have Biden trailing Trump by 3, 45–48. Al Gross is still almost unknown, but trails by only 5, 34–39. (An incumbent with 39 is in trouble.) And Alyse Galvin is up(!) 2, 43–41.

Kos says,

Alaskan voters don’t seem to realize there’s a Senate race this fall. Democrats need to change that ASAP, and Alaska is a dirt cheap state to advertise in. Not sure what the hold up is. 

Good point. Although Gross has been outraised so far, he’s being noticed. He’s done several joint fundraisers with better-known Lower 48 Democrats. My next check to him will suggest it’s time for him to get moving.

Minutes from July 5 meeting

Most of the meeting was discussion of Indivisible Elmwood endorsements. I presented a chart.

We eliminated the strikeouts, either as too much of a long shot, or because we think we will be just as effective supporting down-ballot races in the same jurisdiction. (Since the meeting, Bullock and Cunningham reported enormous cash hauls, making up significant deficits relative to Team COVID.) We will make a final decision at the next meeting. Current prospects are in yellow background. Bollier may be added if Kobach is her opponent.

Current polling is, of course, favorable. Here is an Internet op-ed from the WaPo pointing out conventional wisdom in April and May was that Trump had reached his nadir, but fell further. If the coronavirus picks up in the Sun Belt, which looks very plausible right now, even Trump’s current support could weaken.

In other meeting news, Bruce reported that the Movement Voter Project was favorably impressed with donations that came in through Indivisible Elmwood links. And Judy spoke favorable of Alameda Supervisor candidate Vinnie Bacon: much better on law and justice than the conservative competitor. We’ll be hearing more about him, too.

Agenda for today 4:30-5:30

Big event! Today we will decide on the Elmwood Invisible Slate, combining Sister District recommendations and Andy’s analysis to figure out which are the races that we can have the most impact on and how (from local house races up through Senate) . Bring your ideas and we’ll hash this out together. Our past record is really good—let’s see if we can help some just under-the-radar elections to win on our way to White House and then win them. Also on the agenda, some reports of works in progress and resources.

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84079615742?pwd=eVFockVaajFmY20wRTF2ekkrR2hwdz09

Zoom link for July 5

Andrew Lazarus is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Topic: Indivisible Elmwood
Time: Jul 5, 2020 04:30 PM Pacific Time (US and Canada)

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Election roundup

New York: No more news as of time of this posting. The race to face Lee Zeldin (NY-01, Long Island) has a margin of less than 200 with most of the ballots outstanding.

Kentucky: Squeaker win for McGrath. I suspect she would have lost if the election were this week and not last week. I would have more regrets except I don’t expect either can give Moscow Mitch more than a token scare. But: we flipped a Kentucky State Assembly seat up for a special election, 57–43(!). Dr. Karen Berg is the first Democrat to hold it in 25 years. She turns out to be the childhood neighbor of a friend, so we kicked in $25. And—look— that was enough! By my math, this costs the Republicans their veto-proof majority in the chamber.

Colorado: To the surprise of no one, John Hickenlooper won the right to dispatch Cory Gardner in November. Primaries for Progress, which I take, has a low opinion of Hickenlooper. Their newsletter even compared him to Dianne Feinstein: waste of a safe blue seat. Most of the mainstream press attention went to the Republican incumbent in CO-03 losing his primary to a QAnon-conspiracy nut. She also doesn’t let people with masks into her bar. Basically, someone who makes Sarah Palin look like Eleanor Roosevelt. She is highly likely to win; the district is strongly Republican.

Massachusetts: The day after Jamaal Bowman ran up the score on Rep. Eliot Engel (NY–16), I got a call from Alex Morse, the mayor of Northampton, Massachusetts. He’s running from the left against Richard Neal (MA–01), the chair of Ways and Means whose indolent pursuit of Trump’s taxes was frustrating. Morse called me months ago and I told him I’d wait to see Bowman’s result before making a commitment to another insurgency. Morse, who said he’d been at Bowman’s Campaign HQ for Election Day, wanted to make sure I remembered my pledge. I had. I even told him so when I picked up the phone.