Alaska polls

Public Policy Polling (PPP) is out with polling from Alaska.

You heard it here first, but these are the sleeper races. They have Biden trailing Trump by 3, 45–48. Al Gross is still almost unknown, but trails by only 5, 34–39. (An incumbent with 39 is in trouble.) And Alyse Galvin is up(!) 2, 43–41.

Kos says,

Alaskan voters don’t seem to realize there’s a Senate race this fall. Democrats need to change that ASAP, and Alaska is a dirt cheap state to advertise in. Not sure what the hold up is. 

Good point. Although Gross has been outraised so far, he’s being noticed. He’s done several joint fundraisers with better-known Lower 48 Democrats. My next check to him will suggest it’s time for him to get moving.

Minutes from July 5 meeting

Most of the meeting was discussion of Indivisible Elmwood endorsements. I presented a chart.

We eliminated the strikeouts, either as too much of a long shot, or because we think we will be just as effective supporting down-ballot races in the same jurisdiction. (Since the meeting, Bullock and Cunningham reported enormous cash hauls, making up significant deficits relative to Team COVID.) We will make a final decision at the next meeting. Current prospects are in yellow background. Bollier may be added if Kobach is her opponent.

Current polling is, of course, favorable. Here is an Internet op-ed from the WaPo pointing out conventional wisdom in April and May was that Trump had reached his nadir, but fell further. If the coronavirus picks up in the Sun Belt, which looks very plausible right now, even Trump’s current support could weaken.

In other meeting news, Bruce reported that the Movement Voter Project was favorably impressed with donations that came in through Indivisible Elmwood links. And Judy spoke favorable of Alameda Supervisor candidate Vinnie Bacon: much better on law and justice than the conservative competitor. We’ll be hearing more about him, too.

Agenda for today 4:30-5:30

Big event! Today we will decide on the Elmwood Invisible Slate, combining Sister District recommendations and Andy’s analysis to figure out which are the races that we can have the most impact on and how (from local house races up through Senate) . Bring your ideas and we’ll hash this out together. Our past record is really good—let’s see if we can help some just under-the-radar elections to win on our way to White House and then win them. Also on the agenda, some reports of works in progress and resources.

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Zoom link for July 5

Andrew Lazarus is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Topic: Indivisible Elmwood
Time: Jul 5, 2020 04:30 PM Pacific Time (US and Canada)

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Election roundup

New York: No more news as of time of this posting. The race to face Lee Zeldin (NY-01, Long Island) has a margin of less than 200 with most of the ballots outstanding.

Kentucky: Squeaker win for McGrath. I suspect she would have lost if the election were this week and not last week. I would have more regrets except I don’t expect either can give Moscow Mitch more than a token scare. But: we flipped a Kentucky State Assembly seat up for a special election, 57–43(!). Dr. Karen Berg is the first Democrat to hold it in 25 years. She turns out to be the childhood neighbor of a friend, so we kicked in $25. And—look— that was enough! By my math, this costs the Republicans their veto-proof majority in the chamber.

Colorado: To the surprise of no one, John Hickenlooper won the right to dispatch Cory Gardner in November. Primaries for Progress, which I take, has a low opinion of Hickenlooper. Their newsletter even compared him to Dianne Feinstein: waste of a safe blue seat. Most of the mainstream press attention went to the Republican incumbent in CO-03 losing his primary to a QAnon-conspiracy nut. She also doesn’t let people with masks into her bar. Basically, someone who makes Sarah Palin look like Eleanor Roosevelt. She is highly likely to win; the district is strongly Republican.

Massachusetts: The day after Jamaal Bowman ran up the score on Rep. Eliot Engel (NY–16), I got a call from Alex Morse, the mayor of Northampton, Massachusetts. He’s running from the left against Richard Neal (MA–01), the chair of Ways and Means whose indolent pursuit of Trump’s taxes was frustrating. Morse called me months ago and I told him I’d wait to see Bowman’s result before making a commitment to another insurgency. Morse, who said he’d been at Bowman’s Campaign HQ for Election Day, wanted to make sure I remembered my pledge. I had. I even told him so when I picked up the phone.

Minutes from June 21 meeting

Naomi reviewed material on the most effective strategies for GOTV. Postcarding is effective, letter writing more so. (Vote Forward, for letters.) There does not seem to be a problem with contacting people too much, as long as it isn’t an intrusive method like texting. Gentle social pressure and reviewing the actual voting process are better than partisanship. Email Naomi to get postcard addresses for TJ Cox.

I reviewed several upcoming Democratic primaries. Tomorrow we see if tortoise Charles Booker has overtaken hare Amy McGrath for KY-Sen. I tend to put more credence in the polls showing both of them far behind Moscow Mitch than those showing McGrath even with him. There were also several primaries in New York with racial and generational overtones. The NY Times, against type, mostly endorsed youth.

Links to Senate candidates in big bang-for-buck races. Greenfield (Iowa). Bullock (Montana). Cunningham (NC). And rather than donate to Biden generically, we can funnel donations through groups that will push him in a desirable direction. Example: Clean Energy for Biden. (Unfortunately, their name and URL are too easy to misread as “clean energy forbidden”, which is the Republican plan.)

Judy spoke again about the malign Alameda County sheriff. At this point we are trying to remove his support in the county Board of Supervisors. This year the key election is in District One. The progressive candidate in the General Election is Vinnie Bacon, a member of the Fremont City Council.

Bruce is keeping an eye on developments in Indivisible California. Much of the recent call was on Black Lives Matter.

Actions for Friday Juneteenth and beyond

The national Indivisible organization has recommended the following actions for this Friday 6/19 and beyond:

  1. RSVP for a Juneteenth Day of Action event near you. The Movement for Black Lives (M4BL) has created a centralized map for folks to register events and RSVP to them—there are several in Berkeley & Oakland Friday. If you’re looking for ways to take action from home, a good starting point is our resource for taking action in solidarity with Black lives — but we also encourage you to stay intentionally plugged in and aware of the demands and activities of Black-led organizing groups in your area.
  2. Call on your own local and state officials and tell them to defund your local police department and invest those funds in resources people need in Black communities, Indigenous communities, and communities of color. Local governments must commit to cutting funding for the police and investing it in Black community-led education, health and safety programs (such as funding for schools and youth homelessness services, solutions to the opioid crisis, and non-police responders for crises such as mental health response teams and community violence prevention programs). There is a national crisis of violence against Black people that spans centuries. Now is the time for visionary and radical change that you can be a part of. Call on your own local and state officials and demand this long overdue change.
  3. Urge your elected officials to sign onto the No Cash from Cops campaign. This is a campaign led by our partners at Color of Change, urging elected officials to refuse to take any political donations from police unions or sheriff associations, and donate any contributions already taken to Black-led community strengthening initiatives.