Hang on to optimism

Judy Stacey sent me a link to today’s Debbie Downer NY Times story. The premise: take the error in Biden’s favor in the 2020 election and apply it to the 202 Senate race. We know there were some big misses in 2020 polling and not in our favor, either.

If you do that, Warnock (GA) and Cortez Masto (NV) are barely holding on, Mandela Barnes (WI) is well behind, and Val Demings (FL) is trailing by double-digits, which I suggest is absurd.

Once you get past this terrifying tableau, they start to discuss why the premise may not hold at all. And then we come to the important part: Dems have outperformed their pre-election polls in every special election since the Dobbs decision. The big polling misses come from not understanding who is coming to vote. There’s evidence that who is coming to vote this November will be younger and more female than usual. And that’s why we should be optimistic.

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