My usual election and poll results rundown was a little brighter than earlier in the year. Our postcards pulled Pat Ryan over the finish line in NY-19. The AK-AL special election, which uses Ranked Choice, may be a big upset. The Democrat, Mary Peltola, is leading the field in first-choice votes. Sarah Palin is second. Mainstream Republican Nick Begich is third. The question is what number of Begich voters put Palin as a second choice—even a blank or invalid second choice would be good for Peltola. Every election since Dobbs has shown Democratic overperformance relative to expectations, polls, and even Biden 2020.
Our ActBlue site remains devoted to three grassroots/statehouse campaigns: North Carolina, Michigan, and Arizona. Michigan and Arizona have exceptionally bad MAGA lunatics running for statewide office.
Bruce brought in an order form for Defend Democracy yard signs. I have contacted the printer and we will finalize an order for 50, shipped to our house.
Judy Stacey (a/k/a Judy One) was a little behind on social media, so we explained “Let’s Go Brandon“, a meme developed by MAGA but now co-opted by its intended victims, and the new, far-more-potent Dark Brandon.
I was asked to see which close-race Senate candidates, if any, need money. Most of the key races, the candidate is well-resourced. The one furthest behind his opponent is Mandela Barnes, in WI-Sen. Barnes was the only one with a competitive primary (although in the end his opponents all dropped out) which somewhat depleted his resources.
And we discussed whether and where to canvass. Naomi and I keep talking about Dr. Kermit Jones (CA–03), partly because he seems like a great dark horse possibility, partly because his district is not that far away and not as scorching-hot as the Central Valley.