- CALL Schiff’s office. TELL him to VOTE NO ON H.R. 9495: PROTECT NONPROFITS & COMMUNITIES. (202)224-3121. He voted yes on the first run and it is a bad bill.
- To prep for Sunday’s meeting, watch this video from Indivisible https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=db-Pvqa5SQE
- For thoughtful analysis on down ballot races from Sister District watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWumbR-v67c
- Finally, please RSVP if you are coming on Sunday. All welcome so bring a friend.
Next meeting, Sunday 11/24, 4:00 pm
(This Sunday I am checking out another Indivisible Group, and I will see who has better snacks.)
Well, it certainly was not the election we wanted, and the world will be worse for it. Many liberals and Democrats are assigning blame in ways that coincidentally agree with their priors. I’m still thinking about what happened, but I will say there are two numbers whose importance I underestimated. Biden’s approval is still 20 points underwater, and two thirds of the electorate thinks the country is on the wrong track. I will write more on this, once I can bear it.
When we look back the the Obama Administration, we see his great health care achievements. We also look back on his failure to punish either the bankers who wrecked the economy at our expense, or the torturers who defiled us. When we look back on the Biden Administration, we will see his economic miracle. We will also see Merrick Garland’s epic cowardice disguised as personal rectitude, the moral collapse on Israel and Palestine, and perhaps worst of all, the failure to warn the people up front what exiting the pandemic era was going to mean economically.
We can play the long game. Others have.
No meeting this Sunday
Besides getting over the shock, we have other meetings.
Writing an After Action Report on a failure as catastrophic as this takes some time and will be the product of many hands. The clue that I feel I overlooked is that whatever the economy looks like to us, Biden’s approval rating is 20 points underwater.
Meanwhile: Some of the Never Trumpers helped get us into this mess, but it can not be denied that good writers walk among them. For example, Bill Kristol, who sabotaged the Clinton Health Care plan, now writes
And of course there is no guarantee that the American people will turn against Trump and his agenda. They knew fully well who it was they were choosing this time. Their support may well be more stubborn than one would like. It certainly has been over the last four years.
So: We can lament our situation. We can analyze how we got here. We can try to learn lessons from what has happened. We have to do all these things. But we can’t only do those things.
As Churchill put it: “In Defeat: Defiance.” We’ll have to keep our nerve and our principles against all the pressure to abandon them. We’ll have to fight politically and to resist lawfully. We’ll have to do our best to limit the damage from Trump. And we’ll have to lay the groundwork for future recovery.
And Charlie Sykes, one of the most repentant, contributes
But I would suggest taking a very deep breath. And another one. Because the fights ahead will be even tougher and more dangerous than the ones we’ve been through.
How sad and how true.
Meanwhile, the New York Times, which at least made an endorsement, ran this to show they have finally understood where the electorate is at:
Stop Pretending Trump Is Not Who We Are
We don’t know yet how the opposition to autocracy best continues. Remember, as William the Silent said, “One need not hope in order to undertake, nor succeed in order to persevere”. And unlike so many, don’t obey in advance.
NO MEETING TODAY
Work more, worry less.
Leave it all on the field.
Yes, the Iowa Selzer poll is good news. We don’t want overconfidence. But we don’t want the inanition of despair either.
As for Tuesday: if we win both NC and Georgia, which have early closing times and relatively quick counts, you can open the champagne. But even if we take neither, we can still win with the Northern Blue Wall (MI, WI, PA). Just have to wait, and, yes, worry, longer.
Open House for Final Push
We are opening our house today from 3:00-5:00 to finish off some remaining postcards and letters, review ballot curing options and do some phone banking. If you want to do phone banking or learn about ballot curing, please bring your computer. Last minutes donations will also be discussed.
From the Carson River front
I am in Dan and Karen’s Alpine County cabin (thanks, guys!), after two days’ canvassing in Reno, two in Carson City, and one in Gardnerville. It’s gone the way door-knocking usually does: many not at home, a few houses festooned [besmirched?] with MAGA signs we skip, and some who had already voted for Harris or had a clear plan to do so. So far, we have netted two new Harris voters, both young, both eligible for the first time.
The one-and-only source for understanding Nevada elections is Jon Ralston, founder of the Nevada Independent online newspaper. His analysis for Nevada is discouraging. The big hole is Las Vegas (Clark County), where the percentage of ballots received either by mail or early in-person is too low and, while plurality registered Democratic, not by enough. In the 2022 cycle, almost ninety percent of Nevadans voted early. Northern Nevadans who heeded Trump’s advice to wait got a bad surprise when a blizzard came in Sunday night before the election and many roads were still impassable on Election Day.
Similar analysis of other swing states is mostly good news for us, especially in the Blue Wall, but the people doing the analysis don’t have Ralston’s track record. What he can’t predict, of course, is how many Republicans are voting for Harris. We have met some while canvassing. They were not on our voter contact list, but their Democratic wives were. He also admits he can’t predict how the large number of “No Party Preference” voters will go: exit polling in 2020 said Biden +6. Harris will need better.
At the same time, it is worth mentioning that the national Republican organizations have pulled their TV ads for the Nevada Senate race and all three blue House seats. Trump also cancelled a potential appearance in Minden, Nevada, fifteen minutes’ from this cabin. While the County Supervisors approved the permit unanimously—I assume the First Amendment controls here—there was apparently some grumbling over the unpaid bills when he came to the same site in 2020.
And Harris is going to Texas!? What do they know that we don’t?
No meeting today
I am in the field. The exurbs are heavy MAGA. Reno proper is mostly ours. At least that’s how it feels from two days.
Field trip to Reno
I’m going to Reno this weekend to canvass. This seems to be an official Democratic Party program. There is a bus leaving Berkeley early (🤨) Saturday morning and returning Sunday night. Your Saturday night hotel room is paid for, plus some meals. (I am going to impose on Karen Laws and stay in Nevada to canvass longer.) It appears there are other days available. Sign-up link.
Q3 fundraising
Daily Kos reports on Q3 fundraising as reported to the FEC. Amounts in millions.
| State | Dem/Indep. candidate | Dem/Indep. $ | GOP/Fascist candidate | GOP $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL | Mucarsel-Powell | 12.9 | Rick Scott | 4.2 |
| MT | Tester | 32.0 | Sheehy | 9.8 |
| Neb | Osborn (Indep.) | 3.3 | Fischer | 1.2 |
| TX | Allred | 30.3 | Cruz | 17.2 |
Conclusion: our candidates (especially Tester) will not be losing for lack of money. Lack of voters is a different problem.
Put your anxiety into actions
Here are notes from our meeting. Share them with anyone who might have time on their hands and want to get involved.
First, as Emily explained, this group has lots of great activities curing ballots, researching voting, etc. www.vopropros.com
This group uses Slack and has great trainers to get you on board with activities. Find the activities that interest you in the Monday email sent to everyone involved. Thanks Emily!
Second, here are two links for people who want to do text banking with Field Team 6. The first is to sign up for a training. Good news! They’ve added a training on Saturday, 10/19 at 11 am. The second link is their website. As Meredith, the trainer, told us Saturday: The sole mission is registering to vote. We don’t engage on issues, it’s about finding as many likely Dems as possible and getting them registered to vote. What this means in practical terms is that once you’re trained, your time commitment will be very low. And the training takes less than an hour. Thanks, Karen!
Indivisible Elmwood 