Author: Andrew J. Lazarus

Some last-minute suggestions from J Street

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I am not going to make changes to our thermometer, but on a morning call today, J Street’s race-watcher, who follows everything even more closely than I do, mentioned five tossup House races with Blue momentum.

Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (IL-13), Hillary Scholten (MI-03), Dan Feehan (MN-01), Cameron Webb (VA-05) [use our thermometer], and Kathleen Williams (MT-AL).

We have had Scholten, Williams, and Webb up at our ActBlue at various times. Feehan is a 2018 rematch and a win would balance a likely loss in the Iron Range, MN-07, where long-time Conservadem Colin Peterson is running for re-election in a district Trump won by over 20.

J Street also mentioned what could be this cycle’s negative blind-side result: Peter DeFazio in OR-04 is in trouble. (Ratings agencies moved him from Solid to Lean D, and his internal polling is worse.) DeFazio is a true progressive. His opponent, Alex Skarlatos, is the 2020 version of Dan Crenshaw: a young military vet of unquestioned personal courage and undeniable charisma, who doesn’t seem to know much about policy and is likely to learn from the absolute worst people.

Added Mike Siegel TX–10

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I’ve put up one more Texas race: Mike Siegel in TX–10, who is repeating his 2018 challenge to Michael McCaul. He lost by 4 in 2018, without getting much attention. He’s a Bernie liberal.

We may still be a cycle or two early, but Texas is where we can pick up significant numbers of seats. There just aren’t many Republicans in California to toss out any more. Texas CDs 3, 10, 21, 22, 23, 24 are all highly competitive (Lean R or better). TX–02, already up, is one of several that can flip on a good night.

If you can, there are many state legislature races looking for small amounts of money. Look for lists from Daily Kos or Democratic Party sources.

Greenfield 1, Ernst zero

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In a Zoom debate between the Iowa Senate candidates, Dem Theresa Greenfield knew the going price of corn to the penny. Republican incumbent Ernst? Too much time hanging with the DC lobbyists: she was nowhere close on the price of a bushel of soybeans.

I’m told it’s a big deal.

Fax number to tell DiFi to retire

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 Her performance in the Judiciary Committee hearings was as weak as the worst predictions, ending with a hug of Lindsey Graham. I’m not even sure she realizes she is supposed to vote No. That fax number? (202)228-3954 [DC Office]

I had a dream I received the following letter.

Dear Andrew,
It’s too bad about Roe v. Wade being overturned. The Republicans packed the Supreme Court, even when I asked them nicely not to. The best way to show them you won’t stand for this is to make a large donation to my 2024 re-election campaign. Yours, Senator Feinstein.

Minutes for the Oct 11 meeting

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Action items

  1. We’ll be mailing Vote Forward letters in Lafeyette on Saturday. If you want us to take yours, put them through our mail slot Friday afternoon or evening.
  2. We still have some postcards, and Tony the Democrat still has a few campaigns. Stop by and take what you want from the box on our porch.
  3. With cards and letters almost over, everyone is transitioning to phone and text banks. For phone banking we suggest Flip The West and Swing Left SF. Judy and Karen are deep in texting land. Contact them if you want help. Judy suggest starting with Flip The West texting and move up from there.
  4. Andy is now doing 3 hour shifts with DNC’s Voter Protection Project for Spanish-speaking voters. Emily is with the same project, in English. Lots of people are calling this helpline with voting questions. 90 minutes trainings happen almost every day. [Added Oct 12: Mostly people wanting to know where to vote early in person, how to register, or how to obtain an mail ballot. No lurid tales of voter suppression.]
  5. Working from suggestions at the meeting, Raphael Warnock (Georgia Special) is added to the ActBlue site, and the House races are sorted by promise of success.

Propositions

Below are various recommendations on State and Alameda County propositions, including the Wellstone Club’s and my own. There seems to be unanimity on the best-known ones, but not on 21 (Rent Control) and 24 (Online Privacy), both of which I found, personally, difficult and on which I am not completely certain. Judy mentioned disagreeing with Wellstone’s endorsement of 23 (Dialysis). Feel free to add links to other recommendations (e.g., newspapers) in comments to this post. Y’all do know that you can add comments, right?

A personal view on the propositions

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Just to start off what will probably be a spirited discussion, here’s my take on the propositions.

Let’s start with the State ones, and the subset that are easy.

Prop. 15: partial repeal of Prop. 13. Yes. Opponents say this is just the beginning of chipping away at Prop. 13. Inshallah!

Prop. 16: Affirmative Action. Yes.

Prop. 17: Restore more felon voting rights. Yes.

Prop. 18: 17 year olds allowed to vote in primary if 18 by election. Yes. But please don’t deceive yourself that this is the answer to poor voting rates among youth. I doubt if any race will be decided by these votes in the next century.

Prop. 19: More special privileges under Prop. 13 for existing homeowners. No. Let’s not vote ourselves more gimmicks to keep our own property taxes low. I am also very skeptical of analysis that governments will get more tax money in the long run.

Prop. 20: Re-grow the carceral state. No. Brought to you by the prison guards union.

Prop. 22: Uber and Lyft special pleading. No. I dislike their business model of looking for under-regulated high tech services and exploiting loopholes until lawmakers catch up. I like Berkeley’s proposed surcharge on their rides even more.

Prop. 23: Something about kidneys. No. I didn’t bother to learn about whether dialysis clinics should have physicians, or whatever this is about. Something this detailed has no business being an initiative.

Prop. 25: Cash bail. Yes. Brought to you by the bail bond industry, with the hope you will vote against it from ballot fatigue.

I found these ones more difficult.

Prop. 14: Stem cell research. No? The Federal government is going back into stem cell research. Do we still need a California plan?

Prop. 21: More rent control. Tepid Yes. I think Naomi is No. These specific additions seem OK to me. A 15-year window is more than long enough to understand the market for a new property. On the other hand, I don’t want vote in a way that may perpetuate the idea that rent control offers a solution to the Bay Area’s housing supply problem. For that reason, I’m a hard No on Berkeley’s drastic Prop. MM.

Prop. 24: OK, I am embarrassed, as a software guy, to say I haven’t researched this enough to make up my mind. I think more people I respect are on the Yes side (e.g., Ro Khanna), but there are groups recommending No who are also good, e.g., state ACLU. Maybe the fact the California Republican Party is a No means I should be a Yes.