I am in Dan and Karen’s Alpine County cabin (thanks, guys!), after two days’ canvassing in Reno, two in Carson City, and one in Gardnerville. It’s gone the way door-knocking usually does: many not at home, a few houses festooned [besmirched?] with MAGA signs we skip, and some who had already voted for Harris or had a clear plan to do so. So far, we have netted two new Harris voters, both young, both eligible for the first time.

The one-and-only source for understanding Nevada elections is Jon Ralston, founder of the Nevada Independent online newspaper. His analysis for Nevada is discouraging. The big hole is Las Vegas (Clark County), where the percentage of ballots received either by mail or early in-person is too low and, while plurality registered Democratic, not by enough. In the 2022 cycle, almost ninety percent of Nevadans voted early. Northern Nevadans who heeded Trump’s advice to wait got a bad surprise when a blizzard came in Sunday night before the election and many roads were still impassable on Election Day.

Similar analysis of other swing states is mostly good news for us, especially in the Blue Wall, but the people doing the analysis don’t have Ralston’s track record. What he can’t predict, of course, is how many Republicans are voting for Harris. We have met some while canvassing. They were not on our voter contact list, but their Democratic wives were. He also admits he can’t predict how the large number of “No Party Preference” voters will go: exit polling in 2020 said Biden +6. Harris will need better.

At the same time, it is worth mentioning that the national Republican organizations have pulled their TV ads for the Nevada Senate race and all three blue House seats. Trump also cancelled a potential appearance in Minden, Nevada, fifteen minutes’ from this cabin. While the County Supervisors approved the permit unanimously—I assume the First Amendment controls here—there was apparently some grumbling over the unpaid bills when he came to the same site in 2020.

And Harris is going to Texas!? What do they know that we don’t?