How to keep from panic

I think I am more-than-average prone to fear that Trump will win again. The wonderful Michelle Goldberg writes in today’s NY Times about an antidote.

“The best answer to despair is recognizing that you’re not helpless,” said Ezra Levin, co-founder of the progressive group Indivisible and co-author of the new book “We Are Indivisible: A Blueprint for Democracy After Trump.” …

Levin reminded me that in 2017, Democrats’ chances of winning the House seemed bleak, given the effect of gerrymandering. “In early 2017 we got laughed at when we said we could take the House,” he said. The blue wave of 2018 wasn’t preordained — people built it.

https://nyti.ms/2NtCKdW

The counternarrative

By Friday, all the mainstream news organizations will be explaining why Attorney General Barr is in Italy and has been in contact with Australia. They will probably be doing it in a way that maximizes credence in the bonkers conspiracy theory that the Trump regime is furthering as their counterattack against Congress and the Rule of Law.

The conspiracy theory begins with the assumption that the Deep State (that is, the intelligence community and the Civil Service) are executing a coup against the “duly elected President”. The specific purpose of Barr’s counterinvestigation is to prove that the Mueller Report was an unfair slander that should never have been inflicted on The Autocrat, from whom all blessings flow. To this end, they are trying to discredit the Australian intelligence operative who reported on George Papadopoulos. They are in Italy to meet the obscure academic Joseph Mifsud, a one-person think tank with no obvious source of support thought to be someone’s secret agent. Simplest to understand are two ways in which Ukraine is implicated. The first is that Ukraine faked the evidence that Putin-ally Yanukovych paid off Paul Manafort. Or, perhaps, the evidence is not fake, as the amounts correspond to sums he deposited offshore without paying taxes, but that given Manafort’s friendship with the Autocrat, it should have been suppressed. The second association with Ukraine, which may be the strangest claim of all, is that the compromised DNC server is in Ukraine. This is the server Trump mentioned on his phone call with Zelensky. There is no reason whatsoever to believe the server, or the hackers, were Ukrainian (Mueller indicted Russians for this act and laid out evidence).

Tying the loose ends together is the Steele Dossier. Much of the dossier has been proven to be true. Some still seems rather far-fetched, as its own redactor agreed. But in Trumpland, its very existence is an Original Sin, not yielding before the Autocrat. People who should know better insist it couldn’t be used as evidence for warrants because it was paid for by Trump’s opponents. If so, our prisons will soon be emptied when felons learn the police can no longer use evidence obtained from tips given by professional rivals, jilted lovers, and others who don’t like them.

The big hole in the theory is why this Deep State waited until after the election, while before the election their main accomplishments were (1) announcing an additional inquiry into Hillary Clinton’s email server less than two weeks before the election; (2) letting Moscow Mitch McConnell bully them into silence about Russian interference in the election; and (3) keeping completely silent about the connections between Russia and the Trump campaign, involving Paul Manafort, Carter Page, and others, that they already knew about. But like other conspiracy theories, the point is not the plausibility, the point is the shared membership in the club. In fact, believing the impossible is a strong attraction (see also: miracles in religion). So, the question is how to fight the Trump counternarrative. We don’t need to persuade everyone: we just need to keep the believers to the irreducible minimum core. The floor is open.

Postcard update

We still have about 90 postcards left to write (addresses from Noemi), and not all postcards have been returned to us for sending. Election Day is coming… We need them by the next meeting.

By the way, we spent a good half-hour with Mr. Campa-Najjar. He is probably the most flippable of the seats still in Team Orange Red hands, especially if Hunter is the Republican candidate. Former Rep. Darrell Issa has also filed to run. (Ever notice how the DC swamp-hating Republicans all want to go back there after a brief stay at home? See also—Paul Ryan.) He will need both cash and postcarding.

Ammar Campa-Najjar visit

You may recall, he ran against future jailbird Duncan Hunter in 2018, coming close but not quite. He will be at our house this Friday 9/27 at 9:00 am. We are supporting his second try as part of a non-Indivisible commitment we made to J Street. (By the way, Washington, DC does not have a J Street. The grid goes from I Street to K Street.)

RSVP to us if you would like to meet him here.

Notes from the August 25 meeting (with action items)

  • Thanks to all who came to our meeting!
  • We are (as of this writing) $300 short of our commitment to the Virginia 2019 statehouse elections. You can contribute by clicking the thermometer above, which shows how close we are to our goal. We are supporting three candidates: one for State Senate and two for the House of Delegates (Assembly) seats overlapping that Senate seat. Cheryl Turpin flipped a Delegate seat in 2017, with our help. This time, she is trying to flip the State Senate seat, while Alex Askew is running for the seat Turpin is relinquishing. Nancy Guy is running for the other Delegate seat. If we win these three we will have one Democratic hold and two flips R to Dem. ACTION ITEM: Send around our ActBlue Link above to help us reach and surpass our Virginia goal.
  • Bill Marthinsen is helping with the postcard campaigns for Sister District, which include the our Virginia races. Noemi Levine is helping anyone who isn’t set up with Tony the Democrat and his postcard campaigns. Judy Stacey will listen in on the Indivisible California State Strong calls. ACTION ITEM: Anyone needing help or info about these projects can post a comment below.
  • We should be postcarding for the North Carolina special election, as well as Virginia. Note that the Virginia postcards need legal disclaimers. ACTION ITEM: At our next meeting we’ll be doing Virginia postcards. If you want some addresses before the meeting, ask in a comment below and we’ll send you some. OR write some for Tony’s campaign in North Carolina for upcoming special election.
  • Bill reported that the intern we sent to Virginia has returned to California to start college had a great time, and we should continue this program. ACTION ITEM: Anyone want to help build up the intern program?
  • Hold the date: weekend of November 16–17, Rep. Lauren Underwood (IL–14) is fundraising in the Bay Area. We are likely to host.
  • Get well soon to Ann Overton, who had a severe fall.
  • NEXT MEETING: Sunday Sept 8th, 4:30-5:45. We’ll learn about fighting gerrymandering and write some postcards as well as plan our November event with Lauren.

Technical issue

This post has something in common with Russell’s Paradox. I’ve encountered a problem with a refusal to log in, so you can’t see this blog (which is restricted to members).

Safari is a supported browser for WordPress, so if this recurs I will ask for help.

Quiet evening at home

Our invitation to a quiet evening at home is ready. Copy and paste the invitation below the line into your own email. The information sheet on the election can be downloaded from the Download button below. (The Act Blue link should copy into your mail, but it will not copy into a Facebook page. If you are using Facebook, copy the link separately.)


Help Flip The Virginia State House and Senate Blue in November 2019 with a 

QUIET EVENING AT HOME 

Virginia Primary Day: Tuesday, June 11th

No need to fight for a scarce East Bay parking space. No need to dress up. 

Just contribute $20 or more at our Act Blue link that will directly fund the Virginia campaign efforts in State Senate District 7 and House of Delegates Districts 83 and 85. For your donation you’ll receive

  • One teabag to take you comfortably through the evening of the primary
  • An authorized, collectable and handmade button from our Indivisible Elmwood group
  • Information regarding 3 important Virginia elections so you can understand the primary results

In order to receive your gifts, let us know you’ve contributed and the address to which you’d like our appreciation to be delivered.