Usual place! That is, the usual in-person place. (I suppose we need to qualify that now.)
I suggest we think about how the invasion of Ukraine can affect our elections, and in particular how to exploit the Republicans’ difficulty, given their pro-Putin wing, in formulating a response.
The loathsome Marjorie Taylor Greene has not one but two Democratic opponents, raking in massive donations from small donors.
Trump won this district by 39 points. There is no missing decimal point there. Thirty-nine.
Marcus Flowers seems like a great candidate. Maybe he can trim the margin to 20. Maybe he can bring in some voters to help the up-ballot races. But he won’t need a massive advertising campaign to do that.
Reminder: Don’t give out of spite.
I promised to supply this, then forgot. Her SF office fax is (415) 393-0710.
As an addendum to the CA discussion, I have heard a rumor that Jerry McNerney will retire, and Harder will run for that seat instead, with an incumbent D member of the Assembly trying to move up.
Well, it was back to the good old days of a Zoom meeting…
I started with a discussion of redistricting. The national picture is not as dire as we feared. Yes, from gerrymandering we are losing some seats in AZ, GA, TN—but it could have been worse. And we have pickup opportunities in NY, IL, WA, and very much so in CA. Our districts are not gerrymandered, but several of the Republicans who won seats in 2020 that we had taken only in 2018 face more difficult races. They are David Valadao (CA-22 in the new numbering, formerly 21), Mike García (CA-27, ex 25), and Michelle Steele (45, ex 48). These are now all 2020–Biden districts. We might be able to swing 40 and 41 (Young Kim and Ken Calvert), except so far we don’t have serious opponents to them. Bruce Jackson said that the Wednesday state Indivisible call included discussion of finding some serious candidates to run here. We also have Dr. Kermit Jones in CA-03 (mostly the old 04), who will not be facing an incumbent although the district is difficult.
A full spreadsheet is here. (Our WordPress is too cheap to embed PDF, you will have to download.)
Naomi discussed how to start donating. The thermometer is now up for Airlift, volunteers from Marin who will split the money to about a dozen state voter registration groups. We don’t need to give to candidates yet. We need to drive voter engagement. Another, similar group, as Bruce reminded us, is the Movement Voter Project, which is similar but has an even longer menu of groups to choose from. I would be remiss not to mention the Wisconsin Democrats, who, under Ben Wikler, appear to be one of the few state parties to understand a last-minute ad blitz doesn’t cut it any more.
We are starting with action items. You can always check Activate America (née Flip the West) for postcarding or text/phone campaign. We will bring postcards back to our porch. Any ideas for a good half-card design with this slogan?
As discussed at the 6/20 meeting, we have some new groups to support.
The graphical thermometer link has been broken by software revisions. Go to our site to donate.In view of omicron, although we will be here, we are also offering a Zoom link to the meeting, and many of you have expressed interest in attending that way.
Email Naomi for the link.
[OOPS: earlier version said 4:30. It’s 4:00!]
Just as the Democratic leadership looks ready to give up, an article on how a more confrontational and effective party might just salvage the situation.
There are a number of commemorative events for Thursday. There’s (some) evidence that Merrick Garland remembers what happened, although he hasn’t yet accomplished much. Neither, honestly, has the House 1/6 Committee, beyond rehabilitating the Cheney Family reputation, something I would not have thought possible. Maybe the various contempt trials and other belated indictments will happen before the election. Maybe not.
Indivisible Marin has a virtual Hour of Action from 5:00–6:00 pm. Barbara Lee is doing a Facebook event (no FB account required) from 5:30–7:00.
Also of interest: the 2021 Sister District report.
Our first meeting will be Sunday, January 16, 4:00 pm, usual place. Bring friends. I will go over the California and national election scene, although (unlike some) I think that what happens with Covid and the economy between now and November will matter a lot. [UPDATE: In view of omicron, we will also offer a Zoom link for this week. Request the link by email.]
This Sunday, December 5, 4:00-5:00.
Since there is little we can do about it.
Turnout appears high in the DC suburbs, a (very) good sign. So far, trending below 2017 in Charlottesville and some parts of Tidewater, not good. No word on rural turnout, which will indicate if Youngkin is getting the surplus he needs to overcome significant early vote deficit.
Indivisible Elmwood 