As discussed at the 6/20 meeting, we have some new groups to support.

The graphical thermometer link has been broken by software revisions. Go to our site to donate.

In view of omicron, although we will be here, we are also offering a Zoom link to the meeting, and many of you have expressed interest in attending that way.

Email Naomi for the link.

[OOPS: earlier version said 4:30. It’s 4:00!]

Just as the Democratic leadership looks ready to give up, an article on how a more confrontational and effective party might just salvage the situation.

& Insurrection Anniversary

There are a number of commemorative events for Thursday. There’s (some) evidence that Merrick Garland remembers what happened, although he hasn’t yet accomplished much. Neither, honestly, has the House 1/6 Committee, beyond rehabilitating the Cheney Family reputation, something I would not have thought possible. Maybe the various contempt trials and other belated indictments will happen before the election. Maybe not.

Indivisible Marin has a virtual Hour of Action from 5:00–6:00 pm. Barbara Lee is doing a Facebook event (no FB account required) from 5:30–7:00.

Also of interest: the 2021 Sister District report.

Our first meeting will be Sunday, January 16, 4:00 pm, usual place. Bring friends. I will go over the California and national election scene, although (unlike some) I think that what happens with Covid and the economy between now and November will matter a lot. [UPDATE: In view of omicron, we will also offer a Zoom link for this week. Request the link by email.]

This Sunday, December 5, 4:00-5:00.

Since there is little we can do about it.

Turnout appears high in the DC suburbs, a (very) good sign. So far, trending below 2017 in Charlottesville and some parts of Tidewater, not good. No word on rural turnout, which will indicate if Youngkin is getting the surplus he needs to overcome significant early vote deficit.

This map of early voting in Virginia (from non-partisan VPAP) is fascinating.

The darker blue—more votes already in—are mostly heavily Democratic areas. The yellow areas in the west and the “panhandle” are the Republicans. Early voting was huge, six times’ the last gubernatorial election in 2017. Of course, that was pre-covid, and perhaps the exigencies of 2020 cause a permanent shift in voting patterns. [EDIT: I have learned that early voting in 2017 required an excuse.]

It’s reasonable to conclude that the Democrats have banked a big lead here.

We are certainly going to see a “red shift” if these early votes are announced before the day-of votes. [EDIT: Most of these votes have been counted and will be reported before the day-of votes. However, with the day-of votes, the Republican areas, less dense, report faster. Expect a red shift; and then a smaller blue shift back.] The question is how much. I don’t know at what point we can be certain of the results, but one clue will be turnout in those Republican areas. If historical trends continue, this is about 40% of the total vote for the election. Republicans need very big turnout tomorrow: twice as many people as they got to vote early. Democrats only need about 1 for 1 (one voter tomorrow for every voter who voted early). I know which phone bank I would rather be at.

We spent much of the meeting finishing up cards for Virginia. They have all been sent with Virginia postmarks. Hope they work. There have been some sky-is-falling articles on Virginia lately, which I want to put in perspective. First, whatever problems we have in VA are not from lack of money. No one can explain to me what the plan is for money that can not even be spent.

Of course, early vote this year can not be compared to 2020, not just because of Presidential year versus very-off-year, but because the 2020 election was conducted mostly by mail. This year’s is not. Half of requested mail ballots have been returned. In those ballots, likely Democratic voters are a 50-point lead. However, in early in-person voting, the Dems have only(!) a 20-point lead, and combined this is a somewhat smaller D advantage than at this point in 2020. No one seems to be looking at 2017, which is the most valid comparison.

Young voters are even less well represented in the early vote than usual. So, there are opportunities to drive up our turnout by whatever means we get this group out. Our peers are, as usual, voting early if not often.

Rachel Bitecofer brought up a point I would not have thought of. The Youngkin campaign is going all-in on culture wars, running an ad about an unfortunate 12th-grader who got nightmares from reading Beloved. (He did recover well enough to become an attorney for the Republican Party.) This approach means they have given up on driving down the heavy-D margins in Northern Virginia. It isn’t a good sign for their campaign.

There is no meeting on October 31! I will make separate post on Judy’s event for Pamela Price. Those of you with sweet tooths (teeth?): we are planning to put candy outside as part of the neighborhood Covid-safe Trick or Treat project.

It’s the endgame for Virginia 2021. The latest Fox News poll has the Democratic statewide ticket up 5. Let’s run up the score and preserve or expand our margin in the Legislature.

I have put 200 postcards on the porch. These are the ones that are shiny on the address side, but I have slapped on a mailing label that you can write on with an ordinary pen. I also found that Sharpie worked, if you have some unwritten already.

The upcoming meeting will be heavy on writing cards. We have 100 addresses; Postcards for Virginia has more for Ben Moses. I will ship everything we have done Sunday to my sister for a Virginia postmark. Any straggler cards, I think we should just pop into the mail here.